CAJ | 학술논문

改革开放以来，经过30多年的发展，中国已重新成为全球经济大国之一。本文利用C-D生产函数和索洛增长模型对中国中长期经济发展进行预测，在国内外研究成果的基础上对美国中长期经济发展进行预测，探讨了在不同情况下中关两国经济的对比分析和追及问题。本文预测结果表明，中国经济只要保持平稳增长，将在2030年前实现多个目标：一是GDP超过美国；二是人均GDP超过1．7万美元；三是人均国民总收入接近高收入国家行列；四是商品零售额、商品进口额等宏观指标赶上美国。
개혁개방이래，경과30다년적발전，중국이중신성위전구경제대국지일。본문이용C-D생산함수화색락증장모형대중국중장기경제발전진행예측，재국내외연구성과적기출상대미국중장기경제발전진행예측，탐토료재불동정황하중관량국경제적대비분석화추급문제。본문예측결과표명，중국경제지요보지평은증장，장재2030년전실현다개목표：일시GDP초과미국；이시인균GDP초과1．7만미원；삼시인균국민총수입접근고수입국가행렬；사시상품령수액、상품진구액등굉관지표간상미국。
After 30 years developing, China returns to a global economic pow- er. In this paper, we use C-D production function and Solow growth model to pre- dict the economic growth rate of China and forecasted America economic growth rate by using the foreign research result. We take a comparative analysis about China＇s and America＇s economic development in different circumstances and try to find out when China economy would overtake America. The result indicates that if its economy will maintain steady growth, then China will achieve multiple goals before 2030. China＇s GDP will surpass America＇s; China＇s GDP per capital will reach 17 thousand dollars; gross national income per capita of China will be close to the high income countries level; some macroeconomic indicators of China, such as imports and retail sales, will overtake America.