经济评论
經濟評論
경제평론
Economic Review
2014年
4期
68~84
,共null页
资本流动 FH系数 广义空间计量模型 权重矩阵
資本流動 FH繫數 廣義空間計量模型 權重矩陣
자본류동 FH계수 엄의공간계량모형 권중구진
Capital Mobility; FH Coefficient; General Spatial Econometric Model; Weight Matrix
极大似然估计等均值化回归方法会掩盖不同时间段的数据特征，故本文通过构造广义空间计量模型对传统Feldstein—Horioka（FH）资本流动性检验进行了分阶段估计。结果显示我国1979—1992年阶段FH系数显著为负或不显著，而1994—2010年期间则显著高于0．64。本文从体制变革中我国中央与地方政府行为特征变化角度对以上现象给予了解释。同时，本文采用物质资本存量变动率指标，更加直接地展示了多类权重矩阵情形下我国地区资本流动性的空间分布及其影响因素。进一步的，本文通过选取或构造制度潜在变量分析了一些重要经济变量对地区资本流动能力产生作用的条件。本文基于空间计量模型的分析得出了较为丰富的结论，并最终指出改变对地方政府以GDP增长率为主导的考核机制是提升我国地区资本流动能力关键的变革环节。
極大似然估計等均值化迴歸方法會掩蓋不同時間段的數據特徵，故本文通過構造廣義空間計量模型對傳統Feldstein—Horioka（FH）資本流動性檢驗進行瞭分階段估計。結果顯示我國1979—1992年階段FH繫數顯著為負或不顯著，而1994—2010年期間則顯著高于0．64。本文從體製變革中我國中央與地方政府行為特徵變化角度對以上現象給予瞭解釋。同時，本文採用物質資本存量變動率指標，更加直接地展示瞭多類權重矩陣情形下我國地區資本流動性的空間分佈及其影響因素。進一步的，本文通過選取或構造製度潛在變量分析瞭一些重要經濟變量對地區資本流動能力產生作用的條件。本文基于空間計量模型的分析得齣瞭較為豐富的結論，併最終指齣改變對地方政府以GDP增長率為主導的攷覈機製是提升我國地區資本流動能力關鍵的變革環節。
겁대사연고계등균치화회귀방법회엄개불동시간단적수거특정，고본문통과구조엄의공간계량모형대전통Feldstein—Horioka（FH）자본류동성검험진행료분계단고계。결과현시아국1979—1992년계단FH계수현저위부혹불현저，이1994—2010년기간칙현저고우0．64。본문종체제변혁중아국중앙여지방정부행위특정변화각도대이상현상급여료해석。동시，본문채용물질자본존량변동솔지표，경가직접지전시료다류권중구진정형하아국지구자본류동성적공간분포급기영향인소。진일보적，본문통과선취혹구조제도잠재변량분석료일사중요경제변량대지구자본류동능력산생작용적조건。본문기우공간계량모형적분석득출료교위봉부적결론，병최종지출개변대지방정부이GDP증장솔위주도적고핵궤제시제승아국지구자본류동능력관건적변혁배절。
The estimation methods on account estimation, are likely to disguise the respective of mean value, such as maximum likelihood characteristics of different periods. This paper specifies a general spatial model to extend the traditional FH test, and then it shows us two FH coefficients which arc so different when we estimate China＇ s province data in the periods of 1979 - 1992 and 1994 -2010 separately. For the first period ,the FH coefficient is significant negative or not significantly under two geographic weight matrices, which are binary and inverse squared standardized weight matrix. However, the FH coefficient is significantly higher than 0.64 for the second period. This paper gives an explanation for this phenomenon from the perspective of institutional change and corresponding behavior of China＇ s central and provincial governments. At the same time, we regard the changing rate of physical capital stock of each province as an index which can demonstrate the mobile capability directly, and depict the spatial position by using local Moran＇s I statistics. What＇ s more important, we analyze many influencing factors of China＇ s provincial capital mobility from two geographic weight matrices to two economic weight matrices, as well as their institutional conditions if necessary. In short, this paper obtains convincing conclusions based on the spatial econometric estimation. Finally, it points out that the key step to promote China＇ s capital mobility is changing the governments gradually. singular assessment criterion of GDP growth to the local
