企业经济
企業經濟
기업경제
Enterprise Economy
2014年
7期
152~155
,共null页
物流发展 进出口贸易 协整分析 面板数据
物流髮展 進齣口貿易 協整分析 麵闆數據
물류발전 진출구무역 협정분석 면판수거
logistics development; import and export trades; co - integration analysis; panel data
物流活动是完成进出口贸易的重要途径，对于拉动进出口贸易具有极其重要的现实意义；同时，进出口贸易增长可以推动物流产业发展。本文利用全国层面和30个省（直辖市、自治区）面板两级数据，应用协整分析方法和Granger因果检验对全国层面二者关系进行了实证分析，并且，建立了30个省（直辖市、自治区）面板变系数回归模型，计算物流对各个省（直辖市、自治区）进出口贸易的影响程度。研究表明：进出口贸易与物流之间存在长期均衡关系，短期和长期内物流发展都是进出口的格兰杰因果关系；不同省份（直辖市、自治区）的物流发展对进出口贸易影响程度存在差异，整体呈现沿东中西部递减的趋势。因此，今后在进一步加大进出口贸易发展的同时，做好不同区域间物流产业的协调发展，实现物流产业与进出口贸易的良性互动，对于整个国民经济可持续发展具有重要意义。
物流活動是完成進齣口貿易的重要途徑，對于拉動進齣口貿易具有極其重要的現實意義；同時，進齣口貿易增長可以推動物流產業髮展。本文利用全國層麵和30箇省（直轄市、自治區）麵闆兩級數據，應用協整分析方法和Granger因果檢驗對全國層麵二者關繫進行瞭實證分析，併且，建立瞭30箇省（直轄市、自治區）麵闆變繫數迴歸模型，計算物流對各箇省（直轄市、自治區）進齣口貿易的影響程度。研究錶明：進齣口貿易與物流之間存在長期均衡關繫，短期和長期內物流髮展都是進齣口的格蘭傑因果關繫；不同省份（直轄市、自治區）的物流髮展對進齣口貿易影響程度存在差異，整體呈現沿東中西部遞減的趨勢。因此，今後在進一步加大進齣口貿易髮展的同時，做好不同區域間物流產業的協調髮展，實現物流產業與進齣口貿易的良性互動，對于整箇國民經濟可持續髮展具有重要意義。
물류활동시완성진출구무역적중요도경，대우랍동진출구무역구유겁기중요적현실의의；동시，진출구무역증장가이추동물유산업발전。본문이용전국층면화30개성（직할시、자치구）면판량급수거，응용협정분석방법화Granger인과검험대전국층면이자관계진행료실증분석，병차，건립료30개성（직할시、자치구）면판변계수회귀모형，계산물류대각개성（직할시、자치구）진출구무역적영향정도。연구표명：진출구무역여물류지간존재장기균형관계，단기화장기내물류발전도시진출구적격란걸인과관계；불동성빈（직할시、자치구）적물류발전대진출구무역영향정도존재차이，정체정현연동중서부체감적추세。인차，금후재진일보가대진출구무역발전적동시，주호불동구역간물유산업적협조발전，실현물유산업여진출구무역적량성호동，대우정개국민경제가지속발전구유중요의의。
The logistics activity, the important way to complete the import and export trades, is of great importance for stimulating import and export trades. At the same time, import and export trade growth can promote the development of logistics industry. Using two levels of data of the country and 30 provinces （municipalities）, this paper applies the method of co - integration analysis and Granger causality test to make an empirical analysis of the relations between the national levels, and then establish the panel varying coefficient regression model of 30 provinces （municipalities） to calculate the influence degrees of the logistics on import and export trades for each province （municipality） . The research shows that there is a long - term equilibrium rela- tionship between import ＆ export trades and logistics, short - and long - term logistics development is the granger causality of import and export, and the logistics developments of different provinces （municipalities） have different influences on import and export trades, which decline continuously from the east to the central to the west areas. Therefore, it is important to make a coordinated development of logistics industry in different areas and increase the import and export trade development at the same time. It is of great significance for the whole national economy to achieve a sound interaction between logistics industry and import and export trades.
