CAJ | 학술논문

该文从货币政策传导理论出发，选取货币供应量、利率、商品房销售价格指数建立向量误差修正模型（VECM），运用Johansen协整分析、Granger因果检验等方法，对货币政策调控房地产价格的有效性进行分析。结果表明，长期来看，货币政策对房地产价格具有一定的调控效果；短期内，货币供应量变化对房价的影响相对较大，而利率调整不是调控房价的有效手段；利率政策有较长时滞，但对房价波动的贡献度大于货币供应量。
해문종화폐정책전도이론출발，선취화폐공응량、리솔、상품방소수개격지수건립향량오차수정모형（VECM），운용Johansen협정분석、Granger인과검험등방법，대화폐정책조공방지산개격적유효성진행분석。결과표명，장기래간，화폐정책대방지산개격구유일정적조공효과；단기내，화폐공응량변화대방개적영향상대교대，이리솔조정불시조공방개적유효수단；리솔정책유교장시체，단대방개파동적공헌도대우화폐공응량。
Based on the theory of monetary policy conduction, this paper analyzes the impact of China＇s monetary policy on real estate price by using three variables： money supply （M2）, interest rate and real estate price. VECM model,Johansen method and Granger causality test are applied to facilitate analysis. The following conclusions are drawn： monetary policy does have influence on real estate price in the long term; money supply has greater impact on short-term housing price; and interest rate is proved not an effective means to control real estate price, but it contributes more to the price fluctuation than money supply.