CAJ | 학술논문

基于中国奶牛优势区和非优势区的省级面板数据，运用面板数据单位根检验、协整检验和误差修正模型，对各区域2008年1月～2014年2月的生鲜乳价与主要饲料价格长期与短期关系进行比较研究。实证结果表明，优势区域和非优势区域生鲜乳价格与主要饲料价格的关系具有明显差异，表现在非优势区域的生鲜乳价格与玉米和豆粕价格不存在协整关系，整体优势区的豆粕价格与生鲜乳价格存在协整关系，且存在长期和短期单向因果关系，但与玉米价格不存在长期协整关系。其中，优势区中京津沪郊区、中原优势区和东北内蒙优势区豆粕价格与生鲜乳价格存在协整关系，且存在单向长期和短期因果关系，与玉米价格不存在协整关系；而且豆粕价格对中原优势区的生鲜乳价格影响最大，东北内蒙优势区次之，京津沪郊区影响最小；西北优势区生鲜乳价格与豆粕和玉米价格均不存在长期协整关系。
기우중국내우우세구화비우세구적성급면판수거，운용면판수거단위근검험、협정검험화오차수정모형，대각구역2008년1월～2014년2월적생선유개여주요사료개격장기여단기관계진행비교연구。실증결과표명，우세구역화비우세구역생선유개격여주요사료개격적관계구유명현차이，표현재비우세구역적생선유개격여옥미화두박개격불존재협정관계，정체우세구적두박개격여생선유개격존재협정관계，차존재장기화단기단향인과관계，단여옥미개격불존재장기협정관계。기중，우세구중경진호교구、중원우세구화동북내몽우세구두박개격여생선유개격존재협정관계，차존재단향장기화단기인과관계，여옥미개격불존재협정관계；이차두박개격대중원우세구적생선유개격영향최대，동북내몽우세구차지，경진호교구영향최소；서북우세구생선유개격여두박화옥미개격균불존재장기협정관계。
Based on China＇s provincial panel data of dairy advantage and non-advantage area, using the panel data unit root test and co-integration test, we made a comparative study on the relationship between main feed price and fresh milk price for each region in January 2008-February 2014. The empirical results showed that there was no long-term co-integration relationship between raw milk price and the main feed price, but fresh milk price and soybean meal price exist long-term co-integration relationship in the advantage areas. Fresh milk price and soybean meal price exist long-term co-integration relationship in suburbs of Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai, the central plain area, the northeast and Inner Mongolia area, and there was no co-integration relationship between the price of fresh milk and corn. Soybean meal price of central plain area had the greatest influence on price of raw milk, the northeast and Inner Mongolia took second place, suburbs of Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai had minimal impact; northwest area fresh milk price and main feed price did not exist long-term co-integration relationship.