CAJ | 학술논문

文章引A．P．Krugman的三元悖论模型。建立货币政策独立一汇率稳定一金融市场开放的框架，采用新兴市场国家14国面板数据分析宏观经济政策的选择对离岸服务外包发展的影响，结论如下：（1）总体新兴市场国家的独立货币政策对离岸服务外包收入额增长及波动性均无显著影响，但是亚洲新兴市场国家该指标影响显著为正；（2）浮动汇率制对离岸服务外包收入额增长有积极影响，但同时也增加了收入额异常波动性；（3）资本完全流动对新兴市场国家的离岸服务外包收入额增长没有影响或有负面影响，且会引发收入额的异常波动性；（4）中国维持独立货币政策．同时稳健实施浮动汇率制和逐步开放资本流动，将对离岸服务外包收入额增长产生极大的促进作用。
문장인A．P．Krugman적삼원패론모형。건립화폐정책독립일회솔은정일금융시장개방적광가，채용신흥시장국가14국면판수거분석굉관경제정책적선택대리안복무외포발전적영향，결론여하：（1）총체신흥시장국가적독립화폐정책대리안복무외포수입액증장급파동성균무현저영향，단시아주신흥시장국가해지표영향현저위정；（2）부동회솔제대리안복무외포수입액증장유적겁영향，단동시야증가료수입액이상파동성；（3）자본완전류동대신흥시장국가적리안복무외포수입액증장몰유영향혹유부면영향，차회인발수입액적이상파동성；（4）중국유지독립화폐정책．동시은건실시부동회솔제화축보개방자본류동，장대리안복무외포수입액증장산생겁대적촉진작용。
Rare literatures have paid close attention to the impact of macroeconomic policy decisions on the development of offshore outsourcing. This paper introduces the trilemma model, and constructs the framework of monetary independence, exchange stability and financial market openness to analyze the impact of emerging market economies＇ policy choices on the development of offshore outsourcing by using the panel data from 14 emerging market countries. It finds that （1） monetary independence has no significant impact on both offshore outsourcing and its volatility in the total emerging market economies （EMEs）, but the effect is significantly positive in the Asian EMEs; （2） floating exchange rate regime has a positive impact on the development and volatility of offshore outsourcing; （3） complete capital mobility has no significant or a negative impact on the revenue growth of offshore outsourcing, but it may trigger the abnormal volatility of the revenue; （4） the maintaining of monetary independence, the steady execution of a floating exchange rate system and the gradual opening-up of capital mobility will drastically increase the growth of China＇ offshore outsourcing revenues.