中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2014年
7期
106~113
,共null页
风电装机 风电并网 供需环境 波特五力模型 STA-LSSVM模型
風電裝機 風電併網 供需環境 波特五力模型 STA-LSSVM模型
풍전장궤 풍전병망 공수배경 파특오력모형 STA-LSSVM모형
installed capacities of wind power; grid-connected capacities of wind power; supply and demand environment; Porter＇ s five forces model; STA-LSSVM model
本文利用波特五力模型对中国风电产业所处竞争环境进行分析，认为中国风电产业内部竞争激烈。外来威胁不明显，替代品威胁力较弱。产业链上游核心零部件生产呈现“技术空心化”。通过对“风电零部件供给-风电整机制造-风电场运营开发”整个风电供需链的分析。认为现阶段制约我国风电产业持续发展的最大障碍，并不在于风电的制造、生产和运营。而是受制于风电并网的约束。为进一步研究未来我国风电市场的发展趋势。本文基于预测效果优予BP神经网络的STA—LSSVM模型，利用1993—2011年中国风电装机新增容量、累计容量及风电并网新增容量、并网累计容量等数据，预测了风电生产供给与风电并网需求的发展趋势。结果显示，2012—2015年我国风电装机容量增长率逐年上升趋势明显，而风电并网容量增长率则趋于平缓。预计到2014年风电累计并网容量缺口将达到4817．03MW，需求缺口将愈来愈大。风电消纳远远滞后于风电生产，风电产能“相对过剩”的局面将更加严重。鉴于此，本文在政策层面上给出如下建议：（1）进一步加强国家电网建设。要有重点、分步骤地建设偏远地区电网设施，并建立更大区域的电力市场．在区域电网内甚至在区域电网外寻找风电消纳市场；（2）创新风电并网技术及应用。政府应积极支持风电开发和并入电网所需要的输电投资；（3）加强风电项目风险控制。国家电力监管部门要重视风电场与电网的相互影响，加强监管力度；（4）创新风电利用方式。通过开发供热、农业提水灌溉等灵活用电负荷，促进风电就地消纳和利用。
本文利用波特五力模型對中國風電產業所處競爭環境進行分析，認為中國風電產業內部競爭激烈。外來威脅不明顯，替代品威脅力較弱。產業鏈上遊覈心零部件生產呈現“技術空心化”。通過對“風電零部件供給-風電整機製造-風電場運營開髮”整箇風電供需鏈的分析。認為現階段製約我國風電產業持續髮展的最大障礙，併不在于風電的製造、生產和運營。而是受製于風電併網的約束。為進一步研究未來我國風電市場的髮展趨勢。本文基于預測效果優予BP神經網絡的STA—LSSVM模型，利用1993—2011年中國風電裝機新增容量、纍計容量及風電併網新增容量、併網纍計容量等數據，預測瞭風電生產供給與風電併網需求的髮展趨勢。結果顯示，2012—2015年我國風電裝機容量增長率逐年上升趨勢明顯，而風電併網容量增長率則趨于平緩。預計到2014年風電纍計併網容量缺口將達到4817．03MW，需求缺口將愈來愈大。風電消納遠遠滯後于風電生產，風電產能“相對過剩”的跼麵將更加嚴重。鑒于此，本文在政策層麵上給齣如下建議：（1）進一步加彊國傢電網建設。要有重點、分步驟地建設偏遠地區電網設施，併建立更大區域的電力市場．在區域電網內甚至在區域電網外尋找風電消納市場；（2）創新風電併網技術及應用。政府應積極支持風電開髮和併入電網所需要的輸電投資；（3）加彊風電項目風險控製。國傢電力鑑管部門要重視風電場與電網的相互影響，加彊鑑管力度；（4）創新風電利用方式。通過開髮供熱、農業提水灌溉等靈活用電負荷，促進風電就地消納和利用。
본문이용파특오력모형대중국풍전산업소처경쟁배경진행분석，인위중국풍전산업내부경쟁격렬。외래위협불명현，체대품위협력교약。산업련상유핵심령부건생산정현“기술공심화”。통과대“풍전령부건공급-풍전정궤제조-풍전장운영개발”정개풍전공수련적분석。인위현계단제약아국풍전산업지속발전적최대장애，병불재우풍전적제조、생산화운영。이시수제우풍전병망적약속。위진일보연구미래아국풍전시장적발전추세。본문기우예측효과우여BP신경망락적STA—LSSVM모형，이용1993—2011년중국풍전장궤신증용량、루계용량급풍전병망신증용량、병망루계용량등수거，예측료풍전생산공급여풍전병망수구적발전추세。결과현시，2012—2015년아국풍전장궤용량증장솔축년상승추세명현，이풍전병망용량증장솔칙추우평완。예계도2014년풍전루계병망용량결구장체도4817．03MW，수구결구장유래유대。풍전소납원원체후우풍전생산，풍전산능“상대과잉”적국면장경가엄중。감우차，본문재정책층면상급출여하건의：（1）진일보가강국가전망건설。요유중점、분보취지건설편원지구전망설시，병건립경대구역적전력시장．재구역전망내심지재구역전망외심조풍전소납시장；（2）창신풍전병망기술급응용。정부응적겁지지풍전개발화병입전망소수요적수전투자；（3）가강풍전항목풍험공제。국가전력감관부문요중시풍전장여전망적상호영향，가강감관력도；（4）창신풍전이용방식。통과개발공열、농업제수관개등령활용전부하，촉진풍전취지소납화이용。
Through analysis of the competitive environment of China＇ s wind power industry by Porter＇ s five forces model, this paper points out that its internal competition is intense, external threats are unobvious, alternatives are weak, and its core component production in the upstream of industrial chain shows the feature of ＂hollowing-out on technology＂. By analyzing the whole supply chain of wind power industry- the supply of wind power components, wind turbines manufacturing, and wind farm operation, this paper suggests that the main bottleneck of sustainable development of wind power industry at present is not the manufacturing, production or operation, but the poor grid-connection. Using the data of China＇ s new and cumulative installed capacities of wind power and its corresponding grid-connection during 1993 -2011, this paper forecasts the growth trends of China＇ s wind power production and its grid-connection by STA-LSSVM model, which predicts more precisely than BP neural network. Results show that from 2012 - 2015, the growth rate of China＇ s installed capacities of wind power increases year by year obviously, while the growth rate of grid-connected capacities increases gently. A gap between the two above would become larger, even reach to 4 817.03 MW by 2014. The development of grid-connected wind power lags far behind the production of wind power, so the ＂relative excess capacity＂ situation of China＇ s wind power industry would get increasingly worse. Therefore, this paper suggests on the policies as follows： （1）further strengthening the national power grid construction. Constructing the power grid facilities in undeveloped areas step by step, and establishing more effective regional electricity market, even looking for electricity market inside and outside the regional grids; （2）innovating the wind power technologies and applications. Goverments should actively support wind power development and investments in required transmission grids ; （3）strengthening risk control of wind power projects. State Electricity Regulatory Authorities should pay attention to the interaction between wind farms and the grids by enhancing the supervision; （~ innovating the using patterns of wind power. Promoting local consumption and wind power utilization by development of heating, water pumping for irrigation and other flexible power utility manners.
