CAJ | 학술논문

近年研究发现，中国的经济发展在一定程度上出现东部、中部和西部三个“俱乐部”的收敛现象。作为经济发展重要推动力的人力资本是否也呈同样态势？对经济发展收敛性的研究，历经了绝对收敛、条件收敛和“俱乐部”收敛三个认识阶段．判定收敛的方法和标准也在不断发展，从分解泰尔指数的方法到在回归方程中加入地区虚拟变量的方法都有大量的研究成果。本文使用空阀计量分析来判定是秀存在“俱乐部”收敛的现象。最大的优点是可以克服传统横截面回归判定中忽略各地隧之间存在的空间关联性影响的问题。在借鉴空间计量分析对经济发展水平和经济增长速度收敛性研究的基础上。文章首先利用全局空间相关性分析工具Moran’sI进行全国范围的人力资本空间聚集性检验和聚集类型判断。然后利用局部空间相关性分析工具LISA对人力资本空间聚集的热点区域进行筛选。文章使用的人力资本数据，是本研究在参考国际标准，界定中国劳动人口年龄范鲴、经济活动范围和人口统计范围后。使用教育成就法测算得到全国及各省1990—2010年期间的人力资本水平。对数据的初步统计发现，20年闻人力资本水平提高幅度最大的是经济欠发达、原有水平较低的省份。使用空闻计量工具，初步的全局空间分析显示人力资本水平的极化现象基本稳定。H—H型“俱乐部”省份数量最多且比重略有上升；进一步的局部空间分析对空润聚集热点进行了筛选后确认，中国存在低程度的人力资本水平正向聚集现象，即低水平聚集的现象并不显著。高水平聚集的“俱乐部”出现在华北和华中地区。并有逐渐向南扩展的趋势。这种低程度的人力资本地区“俱乐部”可能在一定程度上导致了经济发展“俱乐部”的形成。
근년연구발현，중국적경제발전재일정정도상출현동부、중부화서부삼개“구악부”적수렴현상。작위경제발전중요추동력적인력자본시부야정동양태세？대경제발전수렴성적연구，력경료절대수렴、조건수렴화“구악부”수렴삼개인식계단．판정수렴적방법화표준야재불단발전，종분해태이지수적방법도재회귀방정중가입지구허의변량적방법도유대량적연구성과。본문사용공벌계량분석래판정시수존재“구악부”수렴적현상。최대적우점시가이극복전통횡절면회귀판정중홀략각지수지간존재적공간관련성영향적문제。재차감공간계량분석대경제발전수평화경제증장속도수렴성연구적기출상。문장수선이용전국공간상관성분석공구Moran’sI진행전국범위적인력자본공간취집성검험화취집류형판단。연후이용국부공간상관성분석공구LISA대인력자본공간취집적열점구역진행사선。문장사용적인력자본수거，시본연구재삼고국제표준，계정중국노동인구년령범고、경제활동범위화인구통계범위후。사용교육성취법측산득도전국급각성1990—2010년기간적인력자본수평。대수거적초보통계발현，20년문인력자본수평제고폭도최대적시경제흠발체、원유수평교저적성빈。사용공문계량공구，초보적전국공간분석현시인력자본수평적겁화현상기본은정。H—H형“구악부”성빈수량최다차비중략유상승；진일보적국부공간분석대공윤취집열점진행료사선후학인，중국존재저정도적인력자본수평정향취집현상，즉저수평취집적현상병불현저。고수평취집적“구악부”출현재화북화화중지구。병유축점향남확전적추세。저충저정도적인력자본지구“구악부”가능재일정정도상도치료경제발전“구악부”적형성。
Recent studies found that certain clustering of ＂club convergence＂ on economic growth appeared in China. Did the human capital also have ＂club convergence＂ as an important factor to drive economic growth？ The studies on convergence of economy indicated absolute convergence, relative convergence and club convergence. The methods used to judge types of convergence developed from Theil Index Decomposing to Adding Regional Dummy Variables in Regression and published many works. The spatial econometric method used in this paper have an important advantage is that it can overcome problems of mutual spatial effects ignored in traditional econometric analysis of cross section. On the basis of studies using spatial econometric analysis to explore economic development, this paper first used Moran＇ I to test clustering phenomenon and judged clustering types of human capital development in China, then applied LISA to screen out hot clustering regions. The data of Chinese human capital in 1990 -2010 was estimated by educational attainment approach refering to international standards to regulate the age range of workforce and the activity range of economic population. By statistical analysis of the data, the paper found that provinces that had the fastest growth in the past 20 years are underdeveloped. Using spatial econometric tools, the results of Moran＇ I analysis showed that the polarization on human capital was stable, and the number of ＂H-H club＂ provinces was the most as well as its share rose slightly. Further analysis by LISA found that the clustering phenomenon of low-level regions on human capital was not significant while the low-degree clustering of high-level regions existed, namely high-level ＂Club＂ appears in the Northern and Central China, and had a growing trend of extending to the south. The clustering phenomenon of regional club on human capital probably to an extent led to regional club of economic development.