经济问题
經濟問題
경제문제
On Economic Problems
2014年
7期
85~89
,共null页
农业结构调整 成效 协整检验
農業結構調整 成效 協整檢驗
농업결구조정 성효 협정검험
agricultural structure adjustment; outcome; cointegration analysis
以亩均农业生产总值作为农业结构调整成效的量化指标，运用协整检验方法对影响广东农业结构调整成效的六个指标进行实证分析。研究发现：亩均农业生产总值与亩均农业机械总动力、农村用电量和农林水事务财政支出显著正相关，与亩均乡镇第一产业从业人员数显著负相关。同时得到一个全新的结论：亩均化肥施用量和农药使用量已进入边际效应递减阶段，与亩均农业生产总值无明显相关关系。对结果逐一分析并解释原因后，提出了相应的政策建议。
以畝均農業生產總值作為農業結構調整成效的量化指標，運用協整檢驗方法對影響廣東農業結構調整成效的六箇指標進行實證分析。研究髮現：畝均農業生產總值與畝均農業機械總動力、農村用電量和農林水事務財政支齣顯著正相關，與畝均鄉鎮第一產業從業人員數顯著負相關。同時得到一箇全新的結論：畝均化肥施用量和農藥使用量已進入邊際效應遞減階段，與畝均農業生產總值無明顯相關關繫。對結果逐一分析併解釋原因後，提齣瞭相應的政策建議。
이무균농업생산총치작위농업결구조정성효적양화지표，운용협정검험방법대영향엄동농업결구조정성효적륙개지표진행실증분석。연구발현：무균농업생산총치여무균농업궤계총동력、농촌용전량화농림수사무재정지출현저정상관，여무균향진제일산업종업인원수현저부상관。동시득도일개전신적결론：무균화비시용량화농약사용량이진입변제효응체감계단，여무균농업생산총치무명현상관관계。대결과축일분석병해석원인후，제출료상응적정책건의。
Selecting the gross agricultural production per acre as the measurement of the agricultural - structure -adjustment outcomes, the relationship between Guangdong agricultural- structure -adjustment outcomes and six influence factors is analyzed with cointegration analysis method. The research indicates that, with all the data normalized by cultivated land area, the gross agricultural production is positively correlated to the total power of agricultural machinery, the rural - consumed electricity and the financial expenditure of forestry and water affairs, while it is negatively correlated to the first industry employees. At the same time, it presents a new conclusion that both the chemical fertilizer and the pesticide have run into marginal benefit diminishing returns, thus they hardly have any correlation with the gross agricultural production. The policy suggestions are proposed based on analyzing and reasoning the results of this work.
