CAJ | 학술논문

探讨不同因素对能源消费碳排放峰值的影响，对国家（地区）低碳政策具有重要意义。本文以吉林省为例，根据低碳社会发展各个不同阶段设定低碳情景、节能一低碳情景、节能情景和基准情景等4种情景。基于扩展STlRPArr模型，对能源消费碳排放进行预测，峰值时间分别为2029年、2036年、2040年和2045年，对应峰值依次为264．0×106t，356．2×106t,430．0×106t和477．3×106t。在此基础上。对吉林省能源消费碳排放展开可控性研究，探讨各因素变化对峰值大小和峰值时间的影响．分析表明各因素对峰值均有不同程度的影响，其中人口、城市化率只影响峰值大小。人均GDP,碳排放强度和第二产业占比对峰值时间和大小均有一定影响，三种因素分别从低速率提升至高速率时，人均GDP将导致峰值时间推迟，而碳排放强度和第二产业占比则将推动峰值时间提前；进一步定量分析各因素影响程度。依次为：人均GDP〉第二产业占比〉碳排放强度〉城市化率〉人口。根据研究结果对吉林省政策次序提出建议。在保证经济发展质量的基础上。控制经济增长速度、优先调整产业结构、降低碳排放强度、合理规划推进城镇化进穰。
탐토불동인소대능원소비탄배방봉치적영향，대국가（지구）저탄정책구유중요의의。본문이길림성위례，근거저탄사회발전각개불동계단설정저탄정경、절능일저탄정경、절능정경화기준정경등4충정경。기우확전STlRPArr모형，대능원소비탄배방진행예측，봉치시간분별위2029년、2036년、2040년화2045년，대응봉치의차위264．0×106t，356．2×106t,430．0×106t화477．3×106t。재차기출상。대길림성능원소비탄배방전개가공성연구，탐토각인소변화대봉치대소화봉치시간적영향．분석표명각인소대봉치균유불동정도적영향，기중인구、성시화솔지영향봉치대소。인균GDP,탄배방강도화제이산업점비대봉치시간화대소균유일정영향，삼충인소분별종저속솔제승지고속솔시，인균GDP장도치봉치시간추지，이탄배방강도화제이산업점비칙장추동봉치시간제전；진일보정량분석각인소영향정도。의차위：인균GDP〉제이산업점비〉탄배방강도〉성시화솔〉인구。근거연구결과대길림성정책차서제출건의。재보증경제발전질량적기출상。공제경제증장속도、우선조정산업결구、강저탄배방강도、합리규화추진성진화진양。
It is significant to explore the impact of various factors on carbon emissions peak of energy consumption for nation （region） to formulate low-carbon Policy. Taking Jilin Province as an example, based on different stages of low-carbon development, we set four scenarios： Low-carbon Scenario, Energy-saving to Low-carbon Scenario, Energy-saving Scenario, and Business as Usual Scenario, and forecast carbon emissions of energy consumption based on extended-STIRPAT model. The peak time is respectively in 2029,2036, 2040,and 2045, and the peaks are respectively 264.0 Mt,356.2 Mt,430.0 Mt, and 477.3 Mt. On this basis, we proceed with controllability study to discuss the impact of various factors with carbon emissions peak, and the analysis shows that the impact extent of factors is different. Population and urbanization rate only affects the peak value, but per capita GDP, carbon intensity and the proportion of secondary industry affect the peak value and time. When we change tile rate from low to high, of these three factors, we can find that per capita GDP will delay the peak time, but carbon intensity and the proportion of secondm~y industry will bring forward the peak time. The impact of various factors in turn based on quantitative analysis： per capita GDP 〉 the proportion of secondary industry 〉 carbon intensity 〉 urbanization rate 〉 population. According to the results, we put forward low-carbon policy： Jilin Province should focus on economic quality not growth rate, meanwhile give priority to adjust industrial structure, reduce carbon emissions intensity and reasonably promote urbanization.