中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2014年
8期
17~23
,共null页
碳排放转移 经济溢出效应 Moran’s I指数 地理加权回归模型
碳排放轉移 經濟溢齣效應 Moran’s I指數 地理加權迴歸模型
탄배방전이 경제일출효응 Moran’s I지수 지리가권회귀모형
carbon emissions transfer; economic spillover effect; Moran＇ s I index; geographically weighted regression model
准确把握区域碳排放转移的空间转移特征。明确其经济溢出效应是引导区域碳排放合理转移的基础。以中国省际区域为研究对象。以投入产出表为基础．采用碳排放系数法分别测算了中国省际区域碳排放转入总量及碳排放转出总量；通过构建基于地理特征和经济特征的空间权重矩阵．综合运用Moran’s I指数和地理加权回归模型分别研究了中国省际区域碳排放转移的空间分布特征及其经济溢出效应。研究结果表明：中国各省碳排放转移总量均较大．其中碳排放转入总量大于碳排放转出总量，东部及中部较发达地区均具有正的净转移特征：中国省际区域碳排放转入和碳排放转出的Moran’s I指数分别为0．17和0，14，表明中国省际区域碳排放转移在整体上具有一定的空间集群特征；中国省际区域碳排放转移在局部空间主要表现为L—L模式和H—H模式。其中东部及中部经济较为发达的地区表现为H—H模式，西部地区及中部欠发达地区表现为L-L模式。而中部地区则表现为L-H模式或H-L模式为主；中国省际区域碳排放转移经济溢出类型主要有五种具有区域特征的溢出模式。其中中国省际区域碳排放转入所产生的经济溢出效应要强于碳排放转出。最后。针对研究结果。分析了其产生的可能原因。并提出相应的优化对策和建议。
準確把握區域碳排放轉移的空間轉移特徵。明確其經濟溢齣效應是引導區域碳排放閤理轉移的基礎。以中國省際區域為研究對象。以投入產齣錶為基礎．採用碳排放繫數法分彆測算瞭中國省際區域碳排放轉入總量及碳排放轉齣總量；通過構建基于地理特徵和經濟特徵的空間權重矩陣．綜閤運用Moran’s I指數和地理加權迴歸模型分彆研究瞭中國省際區域碳排放轉移的空間分佈特徵及其經濟溢齣效應。研究結果錶明：中國各省碳排放轉移總量均較大．其中碳排放轉入總量大于碳排放轉齣總量，東部及中部較髮達地區均具有正的淨轉移特徵：中國省際區域碳排放轉入和碳排放轉齣的Moran’s I指數分彆為0．17和0，14，錶明中國省際區域碳排放轉移在整體上具有一定的空間集群特徵；中國省際區域碳排放轉移在跼部空間主要錶現為L—L模式和H—H模式。其中東部及中部經濟較為髮達的地區錶現為H—H模式，西部地區及中部欠髮達地區錶現為L-L模式。而中部地區則錶現為L-H模式或H-L模式為主；中國省際區域碳排放轉移經濟溢齣類型主要有五種具有區域特徵的溢齣模式。其中中國省際區域碳排放轉入所產生的經濟溢齣效應要彊于碳排放轉齣。最後。針對研究結果。分析瞭其產生的可能原因。併提齣相應的優化對策和建議。
준학파악구역탄배방전이적공간전이특정。명학기경제일출효응시인도구역탄배방합리전이적기출。이중국성제구역위연구대상。이투입산출표위기출．채용탄배방계수법분별측산료중국성제구역탄배방전입총량급탄배방전출총량；통과구건기우지리특정화경제특정적공간권중구진．종합운용Moran’s I지수화지리가권회귀모형분별연구료중국성제구역탄배방전이적공간분포특정급기경제일출효응。연구결과표명：중국각성탄배방전이총량균교대．기중탄배방전입총량대우탄배방전출총량，동부급중부교발체지구균구유정적정전이특정：중국성제구역탄배방전입화탄배방전출적Moran’s I지수분별위0．17화0，14，표명중국성제구역탄배방전이재정체상구유일정적공간집군특정；중국성제구역탄배방전이재국부공간주요표현위L—L모식화H—H모식。기중동부급중부경제교위발체적지구표현위H—H모식，서부지구급중부흠발체지구표현위L-L모식。이중부지구칙표현위L-H모식혹H-L모식위주；중국성제구역탄배방전이경제일출류형주요유오충구유구역특정적일출모식。기중중국성제구역탄배방전입소산생적경제일출효응요강우탄배방전출。최후。침대연구결과。분석료기산생적가능원인。병제출상응적우화대책화건의。
Accurately grasping the spatial transfer characteristics of the regional carbon emissions transfer and clarifying the spillover effects is the basis for reasonably guiding the regional carbon emissions. In this paper, regarding the Chinese provincial region as research object, based on the input-output table, the provincial carbon emissions in and out is calculated by using the carbon emission coefficient method respectively. By constructing a spatial weight matrix based on the geographic and economic characteristics, the spatial distribution characteristics and its spillover effects of Chinese provincial carbon emissions transfer is studied by applying the Moran＇ s I index and geographically weighted regression model. The research results show that ： （1） The Chinese provincial carbon emissions transfer amount is relatively larger, and the amount of the carbon transfer in is more than out, the more developed eastern and central regions have positive net transfer. （2）The Moran＇ I of Chinese provincial carbon emissions in and out is 0. 17 and 0.14, showed that Chinese provincial carbon emissions has some characteristics of spatial cluster in the whole. （3）In the local space, the Chinese provincial carbon transfer is showed as the L - L mode and H - H mode, and the central and eastern developed area is H - H mode, the western region and central underdeveloped area is the L - L model, while the central region is mainly the L - H mode or H - L mode. （~）The economic spillover type of Chinese provincial carbon transfer has five kinds with the regional characteristics of the overflow model, and economic spillover effect of Chinese provincial carbon transfer in is stronger than out. Finally, according to the results of this study, the possible causes are analyzed, and the paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. It is useful to optimize carbon emissions transfer path among the Chinese provinces and provide the important theoretical and practical basis for enhancing the economic spillover effect of Chinese provincial carbon emissions transfer.
