中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2014年
8期
24~32
,共null页
CO2排放绩效 减碳潜力 影响因素 结论和启示
CO2排放績效 減碳潛力 影響因素 結論和啟示
CO2배방적효 감탄잠력 영향인소 결론화계시
the emission performance of C02 ; carbon reduction potential; influencing factors ; conclusion and enlightment
文章以1995—2010年我国30个省级经济单元为研究对象，在全要素框架下测算并分析了我国各省份的CO2排放绩效、减碳潜力和减碳规模。并研究了CO2排放绩效变动的驱动因素。结论认为．我国各省区CO2排放绩效差异较大．CO2排放绩效较高的省份主要集中在东部沿海经济发达地区，CO2排放绩效较低的省份主要以中西部板块的落后省份为主。减碳潜力和减碳规模测算结果表明。完成2020年单位产值CO2排放比2005年下降40％-50％的行动目标，只有上海、北京、广东、海南、福建、黑龙江、湖南等少数省份能够完成该目标。山西、河北、内蒙、辽宁、贵州、云南、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆等省区是重点监控省份．中西部板块的落后地区是重点监控地区。CO2排放绩效影响因素的回归结果表明。加大政府环保力度、提高研发投入水平、优化产业结构和能源消费结构，对于CO2排放绩效提高将会起到积极作用；工业增加值所占比重、资本／劳动比上升和进出口贸易所占比重增加不利于CO2排放绩效的改善。
文章以1995—2010年我國30箇省級經濟單元為研究對象，在全要素框架下測算併分析瞭我國各省份的CO2排放績效、減碳潛力和減碳規模。併研究瞭CO2排放績效變動的驅動因素。結論認為．我國各省區CO2排放績效差異較大．CO2排放績效較高的省份主要集中在東部沿海經濟髮達地區，CO2排放績效較低的省份主要以中西部闆塊的落後省份為主。減碳潛力和減碳規模測算結果錶明。完成2020年單位產值CO2排放比2005年下降40％-50％的行動目標，隻有上海、北京、廣東、海南、福建、黑龍江、湖南等少數省份能夠完成該目標。山西、河北、內矇、遼寧、貴州、雲南、陝西、甘肅、青海、寧夏、新疆等省區是重點鑑控省份．中西部闆塊的落後地區是重點鑑控地區。CO2排放績效影響因素的迴歸結果錶明。加大政府環保力度、提高研髮投入水平、優化產業結構和能源消費結構，對于CO2排放績效提高將會起到積極作用；工業增加值所佔比重、資本／勞動比上升和進齣口貿易所佔比重增加不利于CO2排放績效的改善。
문장이1995—2010년아국30개성급경제단원위연구대상，재전요소광가하측산병분석료아국각성빈적CO2배방적효、감탄잠력화감탄규모。병연구료CO2배방적효변동적구동인소。결론인위．아국각성구CO2배방적효차이교대．CO2배방적효교고적성빈주요집중재동부연해경제발체지구，CO2배방적효교저적성빈주요이중서부판괴적락후성빈위주。감탄잠력화감탄규모측산결과표명。완성2020년단위산치CO2배방비2005년하강40％-50％적행동목표，지유상해、북경、엄동、해남、복건、흑룡강、호남등소수성빈능구완성해목표。산서、하북、내몽、료녕、귀주、운남、협서、감숙、청해、저하、신강등성구시중점감공성빈．중서부판괴적락후지구시중점감공지구。CO2배방적효영향인소적회귀결과표명。가대정부배보력도、제고연발투입수평、우화산업결구화능원소비결구，대우CO2배방적효제고장회기도적겁작용；공업증가치소점비중、자본／노동비상승화진출구무역소점비중증가불리우CO2배방적효적개선。
This paper studies 30 Chinese provincial economic units from 1995 to 2010. Under the concept of Total Factor, we analyze the emission performance of CO2, the carbon reduction potential and scale of each province. The results show that： The emission performance of COz significantly differs in different provinces. The main concentration of high performance is in the developed eastern coastal cities, and the provinces with poor performance are mainly in Midwest of China. The calculating result of reduction potential and scale shows that only few provinces, like Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong, Hainan, Fujian, Heilongjiang, and Hunan, can accomplish the goal of reduce the emission of CO2 by 40% - 50% in 2020 compared with 2005. Shanxi, Hebei, Inner Monglia Liaoning, Guizhou, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang are special monitoring provinces. The regression of factors affecting the emission performance shows that enhancing environmental legal enforcement, increasing the investmen of R＆D and optimizing the structure of industry and consumption will play positive roles in improving the performance of CO2 emission. On the other hand, increasing the industrial added value proportion and capital/labor ratio and import and export trade proportion are three ways that against improving the performance of CO2 emission.
