CAJ | 학술논문

城市化过程与人口自然增长率的下降显著相关。我国正处于城市化加速推进的重要时期，人口增长速度的减缓既为我国的现代化建设创造了有利条件。也带来了一系列需要考虑和解决的问题。本文基于我国城市人口的生育率明显低于农村人口，而城市人口占总人口的比重迅速上升这一事实做出四个推论，对我国人口数量及城乡结构变化的可能情景进行了分析。约束我国人口增长的因素可简化为生育政策效应和城市化效应二部分，前者可视为外部约束，后者可视为内部约束（即家庭主动节育）。参照城市化过程、人口增长变化与我国具有共同趋势的17个新兴工业化国家和发展中国家的情况，用类比方法估算出1972—2012年期间我国约束人口增长的城市化效应和计划生育政策效应。结果表明。前者使人口自然增长率由24．57‰下降到10．O％-12．O‰，后者则进一步使增长率下降到4．87‰。并减少出生人口3．44亿-4．14亿人。可分三个阶段来分析内、外部因素的彩响效果，政策效应时期（1972—1980）。政策效应为主、城市化效应为辅时期（1980—1995），政策效应与城市化效应并重时期（1995—2012）。40年来政策效应由强变弱。城市化效应由弱变强。在新的发展阶段上，为减轻人口对资源环境的压力需要继续控制人口增长。另一方面，为避免人口老龄化带来的诸多问题，需要保持人口的适度增长。党的十八届三中全会对人口政策的重大调整非常及时和必要，但需要在坚持计划生育基本国策的同时。逐步减弱政策约束，增强内部约束。充分发挥城市化的效应。在各地区、各民族实行统一的生育政策，把约束人口增长的机制由政策强制变为家庭主动意愿，创造更加公平、合理和人性化的制度环境和平台，有序推进城市化过程。城市化過程與人口自然增長率的下降顯著相關。我國正處于城市化加速推進的重要時期，人口增長速度的減緩既為我國的現代化建設創造瞭有利條件。也帶來瞭一繫列需要攷慮和解決的問題。本文基于我國城市人口的生育率明顯低于農村人口，而城市人口佔總人口的比重迅速上升這一事實做齣四箇推論，對我國人口數量及城鄉結構變化的可能情景進行瞭分析。約束我國人口增長的因素可簡化為生育政策效應和城市化效應二部分，前者可視為外部約束，後者可視為內部約束（即傢庭主動節育）。參照城市化過程、人口增長變化與我國具有共同趨勢的17箇新興工業化國傢和髮展中國傢的情況，用類比方法估算齣1972—2012年期間我國約束人口增長的城市化效應和計劃生育政策效應。結果錶明。前者使人口自然增長率由24．57‰下降到10．O％-12．O‰，後者則進一步使增長率下降到4．87‰。併減少齣生人口3．44億-4．14億人。可分三箇階段來分析內、外部因素的綵響效果，政策效應時期（1972—1980）。政策效應為主、城市化效應為輔時期（1980—1995），政策效應與城市化效應併重時期（1995—2012）。40年來政策效應由彊變弱。城市化效應由弱變彊。在新的髮展階段上，為減輕人口對資源環境的壓力需要繼續控製人口增長。另一方麵，為避免人口老齡化帶來的諸多問題，需要保持人口的適度增長。黨的十八屆三中全會對人口政策的重大調整非常及時和必要，但需要在堅持計劃生育基本國策的同時。逐步減弱政策約束，增彊內部約束。充分髮揮城市化的效應。在各地區、各民族實行統一的生育政策，把約束人口增長的機製由政策彊製變為傢庭主動意願，創造更加公平、閤理和人性化的製度環境和平檯，有序推進城市化過程。
성시화과정여인구자연증장솔적하강현저상관。아국정처우성시화가속추진적중요시기，인구증장속도적감완기위아국적현대화건설창조료유리조건。야대래료일계렬수요고필화해결적문제。본문기우아국성시인구적생육솔명현저우농촌인구，이성시인구점총인구적비중신속상승저일사실주출사개추론，대아국인구수량급성향결구변화적가능정경진행료분석。약속아국인구증장적인소가간화위생육정책효응화성시화효응이부분，전자가시위외부약속，후자가시위내부약속（즉가정주동절육）。삼조성시화과정、인구증장변화여아국구유공동추세적17개신흥공업화국가화발전중국가적정황，용류비방법고산출1972—2012년기간아국약속인구증장적성시화효응화계화생육정책효응。결과표명。전자사인구자연증장솔유24．57‰하강도10．O％-12．O‰，후자칙진일보사증장솔하강도4．87‰。병감소출생인구3．44억-4．14억인。가분삼개계단래분석내、외부인소적채향효과，정책효응시기（1972—1980）。정책효응위주、성시화효응위보시기（1980—1995），정책효응여성시화효응병중시기（1995—2012）。40년래정책효응유강변약。성시화효응유약변강。재신적발전계단상，위감경인구대자원배경적압력수요계속공제인구증장。령일방면，위피면인구노령화대래적제다문제，수요보지인구적괄도증장。당적십팔계삼중전회대인구정책적중대조정비상급시화필요，단수요재견지계화생육기본국책적동시。축보감약정책약속，증강내부약속。충분발휘성시화적효응。재각지구、각민족실행통일적생육정책，파약속인구증장적궤제유정책강제변위가정주동의원，창조경가공평、합리화인성화적제도배경화평태，유서추진성시화과정。
There is a significantly correlation between urbanization process and the decline of natural population growth rate. China is in an important period of urbanization accelerating, the decline of population growth not only created favorable conditions for China＇s modernization, but also brought a series of issues need to be considered and resolved. Based on the fact that the fertility rate of urban population is significantly lower than that of the rural population, and the proportion of urban population accounting for total population rises rapidly in China, this article makes four inferences, and analyzes the possible scenarios that population number and structure changes in urban and rural areas. The factors that restrain China＇s population growth can be integrated into policy effect and urbanization effect two parts, the former can be considered as the external constraint, and the latter can be considered as the internal constraints （ i. e. , family active birth control）. Referring to the cases of 17 newly industrialized countries and developing countries that have same trend with China in the urbanization process and population growth, this paper estimates the policy effect and the urbanization effect restraining China＇s population growth during 1972 -2012 in China by analogy method. The results show that the former makes the natural population growth rate dropping from 24.57‰ to 10.0 %v - 12.0‰, the latter further the growth rate dropping to 4.87 ‰ and reduces accumulatively birth population 344 million - 414 million. The effect of internal and external factors can be divided into three stages to analyze, net policy effect period （1972 -1980）, the period of main policy effect and secondary urbanization effect（ 1980- 1995）, and the period that both are equally important（ 1995 -2012）. For 40 years, the policy effect has gone from strong to weak, in contrast, the urbanization effect from weak to strong. In new stage of development, it is necessary to continue to control population growth for relieving the population pressure on resources and environment. On the other hand, in order to avoid the many problems of population aging, it is necessary to maintain suitable population growth. Significant adjustments for population policy made in the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee is very timely and necessary. But it is also necessary to adhere to the basic state policy on family planning, meanwhile, gradually weaken the policy constraints and strengthen the internal constraints, and give full play to the urbanization effect. The unified family planning policy should be conducted in all regions and all ethnic groups. The mechanisms restraining population growth should be changed from the policy enforcement to family willing. A more fair, reasonable and humanized institutional environment and platform should be created, and the urbanization process is pushed orderly.