CAJ | 학술논문

信用证结算是我国国际贸易业务中普遍采用的结算方式之一。在国际贸易中，如何更加准确地对信用证结算的风险进行评估和决策，提高企业的风险承载能力，是专家学者们研究并试图解决的问题之一。本文针对国际贸易中进口方可能面对的欺诈风险，立足于不完全信息，将MKV风险测度、国家风险评级、FAHP风险综合评估方法相结合，对信用证风险进行模糊概率综合评估，并在此基础上采用了不完全信息贝叶斯博弈的决策方法，以帮助和指导我国出口企业进行科学决策。
신용증결산시아국국제무역업무중보편채용적결산방식지일。재국제무역중，여하경가준학지대신용증결산적풍험진행평고화결책，제고기업적풍험승재능력，시전가학자문연구병시도해결적문제지일。본문침대국제무역중진구방가능면대적기사풍험，립족우불완전신식，장MKV풍험측도、국가풍험평급、FAHP풍험종합평고방법상결합，대신용증풍험진행모호개솔종합평고，병재차기출상채용료불완전신식패협사박혁적결책방법，이방조화지도아국출구기업진행과학결책。
At present, letter of credit （L/C） settlement is one of the widely-adopted settlement methods for many Chinese enterprises in the international trade process. How to assess the L/C settlement risk with high accuracy, and to enhance the risk bearing ability of these enterprises, becomes an urgent problem. Based on the incomplete information, and combined with the MKV risk assessment method, the national risk rating method as well as the FAH comprehensive assessment method, this paper assesses the L/C settlement risk with high accuracy by means of fuzzy probability. The paper finds out a better decision-making method under the guidance of the Bayesian game theory, hoping to help Chinese enterprises make their international business decisions in a more scientific and reasonable manner.