CAJ | 학술논문

企业所有制结构调整与对外贸易持续发展是中国30多年改革开放的两个重要侧面。基于政治经济学利益集团理论分析，运用VAR动态关联模型进行实证研究，发现1978-2011年间企业所有制结构与对外贸易发展间跨期动态关联影响具有滞后性，而且对外贸易发展相较企业所有制结构变动对VAR二元动态关联系统各变量变动影响更大。据此认为应优先促进对外贸易健康发展，同时稳妥推进企业所有制渐进式改革；在具体政策实践上，应统筹协调好改革与发展中各利益集团的不同诉求，并在充分考虑政策滞后性基础上着眼长远进行动态决策。
기업소유제결구조정여대외무역지속발전시중국30다년개혁개방적량개중요측면。기우정치경제학이익집단이론분석，운용VAR동태관련모형진행실증연구，발현1978-2011년간기업소유제결구여대외무역발전간과기동태관련영향구유체후성，이차대외무역발전상교기업소유제결구변동대VAR이원동태관련계통각변량변동영향경대。거차인위응우선촉진대외무역건강발전，동시은타추진기업소유제점진식개혁；재구체정책실천상，응통주협조호개혁여발전중각이익집단적불동소구，병재충분고필정책체후성기출상착안장원진행동태결책。
Enterprise ownership structural adjustment and foreign trade development are two of important aspects of 30 - odd - year reform and opening - up process of China. Guided by Interest Group theory of Political Economics, the paper reveals that there is a significant inter - temporal dynamic lagged correlation between enterprise ownership structural adjustment and foreign trade development from 1978 to 2011, and foreign trade development exerts more powerful effect on relevant variables in bi - variant VAR System against enterprise ownership structural change, which supports the priority of robust foreign trade development and the step - by - step route of enterprise ests of various groups and ownership structural adjustment with much attention paid to harmonization of inter- lagged effect in process of dynamic policy - making