CAJ | 학술논문

利率市场化是我国金融改革的重要举措，但是目前还未有从微观数据角度探索利率市场化市场基础的研究。本文借助人人贷网络借贷平台的数据，试图做出尝试。实证结果表明：非完全市场化的利率部分反映了借款人的违约风险，但仍有相当高比例的违约风险未被反映在利率当中。进一步地，本文发现市场中的投资者是比较聪明的，他们能够借助借款人的公开信息识别相同利率背后所包含的不同违约风险。研究还发现，投资者的这种风险识别能力能够直接反映在一个成功订单的参与人数上，间接反映在订单募资成功所需的竞标时间上。这些结果说明，我国信贷市场中的投资者具有良好的风险判断能力，这为利率市场化提供了良好的基础。
리솔시장화시아국금융개혁적중요거조，단시목전환미유종미관수거각도탐색리솔시장화시장기출적연구。본문차조인인대망락차대평태적수거，시도주출상시。실증결과표명：비완전시장화적리솔부분반영료차관인적위약풍험，단잉유상당고비례적위약풍험미피반영재리솔당중。진일보지，본문발현시장중적투자자시비교총명적，타문능구차조차관인적공개신식식별상동리솔배후소포함적불동위약풍험。연구환발현，투자자적저충풍험식별능력능구직접반영재일개성공정단적삼여인수상，간접반영재정단모자성공소수적경표시간상。저사결과설명，아국신대시장중적투자자구유량호적풍험판단능력，저위리솔시장화제공료량호적기출。
Interest rate marketization is a very important step in China＇s financial reform. However there is little research on exploring the market foundation of interest rate marketization from a micro-data perspective. Using data from a peer-to-peer lending website, this paper finds that the not-fully-marketized interest rate only can predict a small proportion of borrower＇s default risk. Furthermore, the paper finds that investors are intelligent enough to identify these different default risks indicated by the same interest rate, via evaluating borrowers＇ public information. This paper also finds that the risk identify ability is directly reflected in numbers of participants in completed biddings, and indirectly reflected in time required to raise these biddings. The results suggest investors in China＇s credit market have the basic ability in risk identifying, which can form the market basis of China＇s interest rate marketization.