当代经济管理
噹代經濟管理
당대경제관리
Contemporary Economic Management
2014年
8期
30~34
,共null页
量化宽松货币政策 人民币汇率 资本回流 溢出效应
量化寬鬆貨幣政策 人民幣彙率 資本迴流 溢齣效應
양화관송화폐정책 인민폐회솔 자본회류 일출효응
Quantitative Easing Policy; RMB exchange rate; capital return; spillover effect
受2013年6月美联储表态将逐步退出量化宽松货币政策的行为及其预期的影响,全球金融市场发生了剧烈地动荡,而美联储退出量化宽松货币政策的步伐却并未由此止步.这不仅会作用于美国的经济增长路径,同时也必将会使得以中国为代表的新兴市场经济体国家遭受美联储退出量化宽松货币政策的外溢性风险.文章就当前美联储退出QE预期及步伐加速的背景下,分析了美联储退出QE对全球经济的影响,以及从实体经济传导和金融市场传导层面探讨了对我国经济的影响,并认为美联储退出QE对我国而言既是一种挑战,也是一种机遇,并最终提出了以“保持稳定”为目标的防范美联储退出量化宽松货币政策溢出风险的对策建议.
受2013年6月美聯儲錶態將逐步退齣量化寬鬆貨幣政策的行為及其預期的影響,全毬金融市場髮生瞭劇烈地動盪,而美聯儲退齣量化寬鬆貨幣政策的步伐卻併未由此止步.這不僅會作用于美國的經濟增長路徑,同時也必將會使得以中國為代錶的新興市場經濟體國傢遭受美聯儲退齣量化寬鬆貨幣政策的外溢性風險.文章就噹前美聯儲退齣QE預期及步伐加速的揹景下,分析瞭美聯儲退齣QE對全毬經濟的影響,以及從實體經濟傳導和金融市場傳導層麵探討瞭對我國經濟的影響,併認為美聯儲退齣QE對我國而言既是一種挑戰,也是一種機遇,併最終提齣瞭以“保持穩定”為目標的防範美聯儲退齣量化寬鬆貨幣政策溢齣風險的對策建議.
수2013년6월미련저표태장축보퇴출양화관송화폐정책적행위급기예기적영향,전구금융시장발생료극렬지동탕,이미련저퇴출양화관송화폐정책적보벌각병미유차지보.저불부회작용우미국적경제증장로경,동시야필장회사득이중국위대표적신흥시장경제체국가조수미련저퇴출양화관송화폐정책적외일성풍험.문장취당전미련저퇴출QE예기급보벌가속적배경하,분석료미련저퇴출QE대전구경제적영향,이급종실체경제전도화금융시장전도층면탐토료대아국경제적영향,병인위미련저퇴출QE대아국이언기시일충도전,야시일충궤우,병최종제출료이“보지은정”위목표적방범미련저퇴출양화관송화폐정책일출풍험적대책건의.
June, 2013, the US Federal Reserve announced that the Quantitative Easing Policy （QE） will gradually quit. Influenced by thisbehavior and the expectations, global financial markets got violently turbulent. However, the quit pace of the QE has not thereby stopped yet.This behavior not only has an impact on the growth path of American economy, but also poses a spillover policy risk shock to emerging marketeconomies like China. This article analyzed the impact of the quit of the QE on the global economy, and discussed its impact on China＇s economyfrom the real economy transmission and financial markets transmission perspectives. The author argues that the quit of the QE could be both achallenge and an opportunity to China. At last, the article proposed some relevant suggestions around ＂ stability＂ to protect China from potentialrisks.
