林业经济
林業經濟
임업경제
Forestry Economics
2014年
7期
72~78
,共null页
J曲线效应 中美林产品贸易 ARDL-ECM模型
J麯線效應 中美林產品貿易 ARDL-ECM模型
J곡선효응 중미림산품무역 ARDL-ECM모형
J curve effect; Sino-us trade in forest products; ARDL - ECM model
基于ARDL—ECM模型，文章以1990-2011年的中美林产品贸易数据，从汇率水平和汇率波动水平两个维度实证考察人民币汇率变动对中美林产品贸易的影响。结果表明，人民币升值在短期和长期内均对中美林产品贸易平衡有负面影响，但并不存在明显的反J曲线效应，而汇率变动性风险的影响并不显著，这一研究结果值得政策制定部门对我国林产品贸易尤其是进口贸易的刚性需求重点关注，并慎重考虑林产品贸易战略的长远规划。
基于ARDL—ECM模型，文章以1990-2011年的中美林產品貿易數據，從彙率水平和彙率波動水平兩箇維度實證攷察人民幣彙率變動對中美林產品貿易的影響。結果錶明，人民幣升值在短期和長期內均對中美林產品貿易平衡有負麵影響，但併不存在明顯的反J麯線效應，而彙率變動性風險的影響併不顯著，這一研究結果值得政策製定部門對我國林產品貿易尤其是進口貿易的剛性需求重點關註，併慎重攷慮林產品貿易戰略的長遠規劃。
기우ARDL—ECM모형，문장이1990-2011년적중미림산품무역수거，종회솔수평화회솔파동수평량개유도실증고찰인민폐회솔변동대중미림산품무역적영향。결과표명，인민폐승치재단기화장기내균대중미림산품무역평형유부면영향，단병불존재명현적반J곡선효응，이회솔변동성풍험적영향병불현저，저일연구결과치득정책제정부문대아국림산품무역우기시진구무역적강성수구중점관주，병신중고필림산품무역전략적장원규화。
The fact that changes of exchange rate can affect a country＇s trade balance has become a general principle.Whether the RMB exchange rate can affect Sino-us trade in forest products in recent years, and whether there isthe J curve effect on Sino-us trade in forest products becomes the two basic problems of this paper. Based on AR-DL - ECM model, this paper study the effect of RMB exchange rate changes on Sino-us trade in forest products（from 1990-2011 ） from two dimensions of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility levels. The results show thatappreciation of the RMB in the short and long term both have negative effects on forest products trade balance between China and America, but there is no obvious jcurve effect, whereas the impact of the risk of exchange ratevolatility is not significant. Policy formulation department of China＇ s forest products trade should focus on the results and consider carefully the long-term planning of forest products trade strategy.
