CAJ | 학술논문

本文对全球169个经济体1991—2013年的产出、居民消费支出和国民收入增长率数据进行估计，以探究全球经济周期相互依存度的动态演变过程。运用动态分层因子模型将发达经济体、新兴经济体和其他经济体三个组别的宏观经济波动分解为全珠因子、组别因子、国家层面因子和异质性成分。研究结果表明。全球经济周期对发达经济体经济周期的溢出效应强于对新兴经济体和其他经济体经济周期的溢出效应，新兴经济体和其他经济体的经济周期明显与全球经济周期“脱钩”。发达经济体之间经济周期波动的趋同性较为明显，而新兴经济体之间的经济周期具有一定程度的趋同性，但也存在“脱钩”现象。中国的经济周期与全球经济周期“脱钩”，但与新兴经济体的经济周期具有一定的趋同性。
본문대전구169개경제체1991—2013년적산출、거민소비지출화국민수입증장솔수거진행고계，이탐구전구경제주기상호의존도적동태연변과정。운용동태분층인자모형장발체경제체、신흥경제체화기타경제체삼개조별적굉관경제파동분해위전주인자、조별인자、국가층면인자화이질성성분。연구결과표명。전구경제주기대발체경제체경제주기적일출효응강우대신흥경제체화기타경제체경제주기적일출효응，신흥경제체화기타경제체적경제주기명현여전구경제주기“탈구”。발체경제체지간경제주기파동적추동성교위명현，이신흥경제체지간적경제주기구유일정정도적추동성，단야존재“탈구”현상。중국적경제주기여전구경제주기“탈구”，단여신흥경제체적경제주기구유일정적추동성。
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period1991 - 2013. We categorize the 169 countries in our sample into three groups - industrial countries, emergingmarkets, and other economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macrceconomic fluctuationsin key macroeconomic aggregates - output, consumption, and income - into different factors. These are：aglobal factor, three group- specific factors, country factors and idiosyncratic factors. Our main result is that,Spillover effects of the global business cycle for the industrial economies is stronger than for the emerging e-conomies and other economies, the business cycle in emerging economies and other economies is obviously decoupling with the global economic cycle. There has been obvious convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and some degree of convergence among the group of emerging market e-conomies. China＇ s economic cycle decouplingwith the global business cycle, but with the emerging economiesbusiness cycle has a certain convergence.