CAJ | 학술논문

对中国在1992—2012年的进出口商品的海关统计数据从需求角度重新分类计算，发现出口商品中的投资品比例不断上升，进口商品中投资品的比例长期保持在90％以上。这种投资型进出口商品结构体现出贸易战略的产业发展目标，即通过对外贸易实现产业转换，最终建立完备的工业化体系。将进出口商品的结构特征参数纳入贸易条件模型，利用同时期中美价格指数和人民币兑美元的名义汇率，计算中关贸易条件的时间序列数据。计算结果显示，以产业全面发展为目标的贸易转换战略，付出了贸易条件长时期恶化的代价。
대중국재1992—2012년적진출구상품적해관통계수거종수구각도중신분류계산，발현출구상품중적투자품비례불단상승，진구상품중투자품적비례장기보지재90％이상。저충투자형진출구상품결구체현출무역전략적산업발전목표，즉통과대외무역실현산업전환，최종건립완비적공업화체계。장진출구상품적결구특정삼수납입무역조건모형，이용동시기중미개격지수화인민폐태미원적명의회솔，계산중관무역조건적시간서렬수거。계산결과현시，이산업전면발전위목표적무역전환전략，부출료무역조건장시기악화적대개。
When the customs statistic data of China＇ s exports and imports from 1992 to 2012 have been recalculated according to the classification of de, mand, it is obvious that the ratio of investment commodity in exports has been increasing, and the ratio of investment commodity in imports has been kept above 90%. Such an investment-oriented structure of trade reflects the strategic goal of industrial development which is to establish a complete and sophisticated industrial system by the trade strategy for industrial conversion. Putting the param- eters of trade structure into the model of terms of trade calculation, and using price indices of the U.S. and China as well as nominal exchange rate of RMB against U.S. dollar, to calculate the time series data of terms of trade between China and the U.S., the result demonstrates that the strategy of industrial conver- sion by trade for the comprehensive development of industries deteriorates terms of trade in the long run.