CAJ | 학술논문

工业作为城市经济增长的主要贡献产业，同时也承担了节能减排的重大压力。了解工业中各产业的能源需求、碳排放量与经济增长间的关系是工业部门共同完成经济增长与节能减排目标的关键问题。以无锡装备制造业为例，以Vensim为平台，建立经济与碳排放综合模型，进行2005-2025年工业产业碳排放与经济增长仿真模拟。模型结果表明，装备制造业能源需求量在模拟时间范围内仍保持增长趋势，至2025年达到4．72×10^6tce，年平均增长率为10．31％：相应地，碳排放量在2025年达到17．83×10^6t（以CO2计算）；能耗强度与碳排放强度在2005~2025年持续下降，2015年后逐渐趋于平缓，在2025年分别下降至0．09×10^4t／CNY和0．36×10^4t／CNY；装备制造业在模拟时间范围内GDP将保持稳步增长，2025年达到5014×10^8CNY，年平均增长率保持在14．27％。敏感性分析结果显示，适当缩减能源实物投入量、提高科研投入、降低高碳能源比重是装备制造业节能减排的最优途径，同时可实现经济增长与缩减碳排放量的双重目的。
공업작위성시경제증장적주요공헌산업，동시야승담료절능감배적중대압력。료해공업중각산업적능원수구、탄배방량여경제증장간적관계시공업부문공동완성경제증장여절능감배목표적관건문제。이무석장비제조업위례，이Vensim위평태，건립경제여탄배방종합모형，진행2005-2025년공업산업탄배방여경제증장방진모의。모형결과표명，장비제조업능원수구량재모의시간범위내잉보지증장추세，지2025년체도4．72×10^6tce，년평균증장솔위10．31％：상응지，탄배방량재2025년체도17．83×10^6t（이CO2계산）；능모강도여탄배방강도재2005~2025년지속하강，2015년후축점추우평완，재2025년분별하강지0．09×10^4t／CNY화0．36×10^4t／CNY；장비제조업재모의시간범위내GDP장보지은보증장，2025년체도5014×10^8CNY，년평균증장솔보지재14．27％。민감성분석결과현시，괄당축감능원실물투입량、제고과연투입、강저고탄능원비중시장비제조업절능감배적최우도경，동시가실현경제증장여축감탄배방량적쌍중목적。
Industry plays a main contribution industry role in economic growth, but it bear huge pressure in energy saving and carbon reduction at the same time. It is significant to know the inner relationships between energy demand, carbon emission and economic growth of every kind of industry. A system dynamics model was developed in this study using Vensim to model the trends of economics and carbon emission of industry in Wuxi over 2005-2025. The results show that the energy demand in the equipment manufacturing industry within the scope of the simulation time is still keep growth trend, it is predicted to reach 4.72 ×10^6 tce, and the average growth rate is 10.31% to 2025. Accordingly, the total carbon emission will reach 17.83× 10^6 t in 2025. Both the energy consumption intensity and carbon emission intensity keep descending from 2005 to 2025, gradually leveling off after 2015, and will get 0.09 ×10^4 t/CNY and 0.36 × 10^4 t/CNY in 2025 respectively. The GDP of the industry keeps increasing and will reach to 5014）〈 108 CNY with 14.27% growth rate on average. The sensitive analysis suggests that to cut energy physical inventory to some extent, increasing the scientific research input, reducing the ratio of high-carbon energy is the best way to saving energy and carbon emission, at the same time it can realize the dual purpose of economic growth and reducing carbon emissions reducing.