CAJ | 학술논문

本文在离散的随机经济增长框架下，采用中国的实际数据，利用贝叶斯估计方法对模型的参数进行了校准和估计，在此基础上，分析了技术水平和技术增长率的暂时性和永久性变化对经济的影响。结果发现，当且仅当技术增长率受到一个永久性的正冲击时，储蓄率的运行方向才与经济增长率一致，两者均不断攀升到新的均衡水平，并且储蓄率有可能随着经济增长的加速而最终变大，这种可能性取决于习惯形成强度的大小，不仅如此，习惯形成还能直接改变储蓄率的大小。
본문재리산적수궤경제증장광가하，채용중국적실제수거，이용패협사고계방법대모형적삼수진행료교준화고계，재차기출상，분석료기술수평화기술증장솔적잠시성화영구성변화대경제적영향。결과발현，당차부당기술증장솔수도일개영구성적정충격시，저축솔적운행방향재여경제증장솔일치，량자균불단반승도신적균형수평，병차저축솔유가능수착경제증장적가속이최종변대，저충가능성취결우습관형성강도적대소，불부여차，습관형성환능직접개변저축솔적대소。
This paper is based on the framework of stochastic economic growth under the discrete condition, we use Bayes estimation to calibration and estimation the parameters by using actual data. On this basis, we analyze the impact of the economy by temporary and permanent changing in the level and the growth rate of technology. The results found that if and only if a permanent positive impact on the technology growth can make the conclusion that the saving rate will be positive respect to the economic growth and will be rise to steadystate may be established. This possibility depends on the level of habit formation. Not only can it also directly affect the saving.