CAJ | 학술논문

中国最近20年的经济快速增长，伴随着中国的工业化和初步城镇化的过程。因此，中国的经济增长被打上了投资拉动型的标签。随着经济的不断增长，中国的经济结构也逐渐形成了高投资、低消费的模式。基于这一背景，中国投资过热论，甚至是中国投资崩溃论的观点开始较为频繁地出现。中国的投资过热是一种假象，中国存在着较为严重的投资高估。如果剔除掉中国投资中的高估部分，那么中国的经济结构将更加合理，中国的投资效率也会得到进一步地提升。同时，中国未来的城镇化过程以及制造业的去工业化过程都需要大量的投资来带动，所以在投资高估的背景下，投资依然是中国未来经济增长的重要动力。
중국최근20년적경제쾌속증장，반수착중국적공업화화초보성진화적과정。인차，중국적경제증장피타상료투자랍동형적표첨。수착경제적불단증장，중국적경제결구야축점형성료고투자、저소비적모식。기우저일배경，중국투자과열론，심지시중국투자붕궤론적관점개시교위빈번지출현。중국적투자과열시일충가상，중국존재착교위엄중적투자고고。여과척제도중국투자중적고고부분，나요중국적경제결구장경가합리，중국적투자효솔야회득도진일보지제승。동시，중국미래적성진화과정이급제조업적거공업화과정도수요대량적투자래대동，소이재투자고고적배경하，투자의연시중국미래경제증장적중요동력。
In recent 20 years, China has witnessed rapid economic growth with industrialization and the process of initial urbanization. As a result, China＇s economic growth has been labeled as investment- driven. With consistent economic growth, China＇ s economic structure forms the pattern of high investment and low consumption gradually. Against such background, the theory of over - investment in China or even the viewpoint of investment collapse in China started to appear frequently. Overheated investment in China is a false appearance. There is severe overestimate of investment in China. If we exclude the overestimate part, China＇ s economic structure will become more proper, the investment rate will be improved further. Meanwhile, the future ur- banization process in China and the process of de - industrialization of manufacturing industry need large amount of investment to drive. Therefore, against the background of overestimate, investment is still an important driving force for China＇ s economic growth in the future.