旅游学刊
旅遊學刊
여유학간
Tourism Tribune
2014年
8期
70~79
,共null页
旅游 非正规就业 拉动效应
旅遊 非正規就業 拉動效應
여유 비정규취업 랍동효응
tourism; informal employment; pull effects
文章以我国经济结构调整为背景,指出当GDP增长率降低到8%以下时我国面临着很大的就业压力。通过文献的梳理,文章说明了在此期间,发展旅游业是解决结构性失业最有效的途径之一。但是,目前的大部分研究都只是把注意力放在了旅游正规部门的就业及其拉动效应上,而忽视了旅游非正规部门的就业。文章详细回顾了国内学者对旅游就业乘数的估算以及他们的结果与WTTC(世界旅行和旅游理事会)之间的差别,回答了这些差别产生的原因,指出WTTC低估了2001年之后的旅游就业效应。在上述基础上,文章利用差值法计算了旅游非正规就业的总量及其结构拉动效应。研究发现,从非正规就业的部门结构角度看,旅游就业的拉动效应远远高于WTTC和国内学者此前计算的间接就业效应;在2011年,它吸纳了2040.40万人在该行业工作,乘数效应达到9.98。因此,在结构调整时期,政府部门应该更加重视旅游非正规部门对就业的功能性作用。
文章以我國經濟結構調整為揹景,指齣噹GDP增長率降低到8%以下時我國麵臨著很大的就業壓力。通過文獻的梳理,文章說明瞭在此期間,髮展旅遊業是解決結構性失業最有效的途徑之一。但是,目前的大部分研究都隻是把註意力放在瞭旅遊正規部門的就業及其拉動效應上,而忽視瞭旅遊非正規部門的就業。文章詳細迴顧瞭國內學者對旅遊就業乘數的估算以及他們的結果與WTTC(世界旅行和旅遊理事會)之間的差彆,迴答瞭這些差彆產生的原因,指齣WTTC低估瞭2001年之後的旅遊就業效應。在上述基礎上,文章利用差值法計算瞭旅遊非正規就業的總量及其結構拉動效應。研究髮現,從非正規就業的部門結構角度看,旅遊就業的拉動效應遠遠高于WTTC和國內學者此前計算的間接就業效應;在2011年,它吸納瞭2040.40萬人在該行業工作,乘數效應達到9.98。因此,在結構調整時期,政府部門應該更加重視旅遊非正規部門對就業的功能性作用。
문장이아국경제결구조정위배경,지출당GDP증장솔강저도8%이하시아국면림착흔대적취업압력。통과문헌적소리,문장설명료재차기간,발전여유업시해결결구성실업최유효적도경지일。단시,목전적대부분연구도지시파주의력방재료여유정규부문적취업급기랍동효응상,이홀시료여유비정규부문적취업。문장상세회고료국내학자대여유취업승수적고산이급타문적결과여WTTC(세계여행화여유리사회)지간적차별,회답료저사차별산생적원인,지출WTTC저고료2001년지후적여유취업효응。재상술기출상,문장이용차치법계산료여유비정규취업적총량급기결구랍동효응。연구발현,종비정규취업적부문결구각도간,여유취업적랍동효응원원고우WTTC화국내학자차전계산적간접취업효응;재2011년,타흡납료2040.40만인재해행업공작,승수효응체도9.98。인차,재결구조정시기,정부부문응해경가중시여유비정규부문대취업적공능성작용。
There will exist great pressure for sustaining employment in China when GDP growth is under 8% in the context of the adjustment in economic structure which can cause social instability. How can this outcome be avoided? In a review of the literature, this paper supposes that tourism development is one of the most effective ways for solving the problem of structural unemployment during this period of economic transition. However, most researches pay attention to employment in the formal tourism sector and its pull effects and neglect the informal employment of tourism. In fact, the informal sectors have absorbed a large number of laid-off workers and migrant workers since China' s reform and opening - up policies were launched which has been ignored and discriminated against by many Chinese local governments. In order to discover true power of informal sectors, the employment of the tourism informal sector was selected as a representative of the service industry. First, the paper presents many categories of informal employment of tourism showing the evidence of informal employment spreading over most industries. Second, the paper reveals the different tourism multipliers between domestic scholars and WTTC(Word Travel & Tourism Council) reports and explains why the different multipliers come out, pointing out that WTTC underestimates the employment effects of tourism since 2001. Thirdly, based on the above analysis, the paper takes advantage of statistical data and re-estimates the population of informal employment in the nation. Fourthly, using the stable weights of employment in the service industry to total employment, the paper measures and calculates with different methods, the scale of informal employment of tourism and its structural pull effects which demonstrate that the tourism informal sectors supply 20.4 million jobs and its multiplier was 9.98 in 2011. Grounding on the research conclusion, we argue that the pull effects of informal employment of tourism is much bigger than that of indirect employment by domestic scholars and WTTC in terms of sector structure, which suggests that the government should attach much more importance to the informal tourism sector during the period of industrial restructuring in China. At the end of the paper, some suggestions for governments are put forward.