旅游学刊
旅遊學刊
여유학간
Tourism Tribune
2014年
8期
98~109
,共null页
脱钩理论 Kaya恒等式 城市旅游业 CO2排放 情 景分析 深圳
脫鉤理論 Kaya恆等式 城市旅遊業 CO2排放 情 景分析 深圳
탈구이론 Kaya항등식 성시여유업 CO2배방 정 경분석 심수
decoupling theory; Kaya identities; urban tourism; CO2 emission; scenario analysis; Shenzhen, China
城市是旅游活动CO2排放的主要集中地。基于旅游者消费视角，文章以深圳市为例，对其2001～2011年旅游业碳足迹态势进行分析。结合脱钩理论和Kaya恒等式，以2011年为基期，模拟深圳市未来旅游业CO2排放量。研究表明：（1）深圳市近11年旅游业能源消费及CO2排放量呈逐步上升趋势；（2）旅游业能源消耗及CO2排放的变化规律与旅游业GDP、游客接待总量有着密切关系；（3）A模式惯性情景下2020年CO2排放将达到1578万t，为基期的1．92倍，与国家的承诺及旅游局的目标背道而驰；（4）B模式绝对脱钩情景下CO2排放增长为零，这是非常理想的模式，但“反增长计划”和“能源生产效率改进”两条道路都走不通；（5）C模式相对脱钩情景下CO2排放是基期的1．38倍，旅游业在维持适宜增长的同时能源消耗和CO2排放状况得到明显改善，C模式是既考虑发展权益又承担大国责任的适宜发展模式。文章最后指出，C模式的实现需要旅游产业发展战略由供给导向向需要导向转型，并采取能源替代、效率改进、技术研发、规制治理和社会创新等综合路径。
城市是旅遊活動CO2排放的主要集中地。基于旅遊者消費視角，文章以深圳市為例，對其2001～2011年旅遊業碳足跡態勢進行分析。結閤脫鉤理論和Kaya恆等式，以2011年為基期，模擬深圳市未來旅遊業CO2排放量。研究錶明：（1）深圳市近11年旅遊業能源消費及CO2排放量呈逐步上升趨勢；（2）旅遊業能源消耗及CO2排放的變化規律與旅遊業GDP、遊客接待總量有著密切關繫；（3）A模式慣性情景下2020年CO2排放將達到1578萬t，為基期的1．92倍，與國傢的承諾及旅遊跼的目標揹道而馳；（4）B模式絕對脫鉤情景下CO2排放增長為零，這是非常理想的模式，但“反增長計劃”和“能源生產效率改進”兩條道路都走不通；（5）C模式相對脫鉤情景下CO2排放是基期的1．38倍，旅遊業在維持適宜增長的同時能源消耗和CO2排放狀況得到明顯改善，C模式是既攷慮髮展權益又承擔大國責任的適宜髮展模式。文章最後指齣，C模式的實現需要旅遊產業髮展戰略由供給導嚮嚮需要導嚮轉型，併採取能源替代、效率改進、技術研髮、規製治理和社會創新等綜閤路徑。
성시시여유활동CO2배방적주요집중지。기우여유자소비시각，문장이심수시위례，대기2001～2011년여유업탄족적태세진행분석。결합탈구이론화Kaya항등식，이2011년위기기，모의심수시미래여유업CO2배방량。연구표명：（1）심수시근11년여유업능원소비급CO2배방량정축보상승추세；（2）여유업능원소모급CO2배방적변화규률여여유업GDP、유객접대총량유착밀절관계；（3）A모식관성정경하2020년CO2배방장체도1578만t，위기기적1．92배，여국가적승낙급여유국적목표배도이치；（4）B모식절대탈구정경하CO2배방증장위령，저시비상이상적모식，단“반증장계화”화“능원생산효솔개진”량조도로도주불통；（5）C모식상대탈구정경하CO2배방시기기적1．38배，여유업재유지괄의증장적동시능원소모화CO2배방상황득도명현개선，C모식시기고필발전권익우승담대국책임적괄의발전모식。문장최후지출，C모식적실현수요여유산업발전전략유공급도향향수요도향전형，병채취능원체대、효솔개진、기술연발、규제치리화사회창신등종합로경。
Cities are the primary focus when analyzing tourism carbon dioxide （CO2） emissions. From the perspective of tourism energy consumption, the study calculates China＇ s tourism related CO2 emissions during 2001-2011, taking the city of Shenzhen as an example. The study found that： （1） the energy consumption and CO2 emissions arising from tourism in Shenzhen have gradually increased over the past 11 years, and after three periods of rapid growth, the growth rate has now slowed; （2） changes in tourism energy consumption and CO2 emission patterns have a close relationship with tourism GDP and visitor numbers. With development the tourism industry faces pressures relating to energy consumption, emissions and energy-saving emission reductions; （3） the tourism industry energy consumption and CO2 emissions total amounts - from large to small - are transportation, catering, accommodation, travel, entertainment and shopping, with the transportation component accounting for nearly 90% of the total. Energy-saving and emission reductions in the tourism industry are closely related to national and urban road construction; and, （4） for long distance journeys, aviation is optimal choice in terms of time, physical and economy cost; for short to medium distance journeys highways and railways are viable alternatives that can reduce the energy consumption and CO： emissions of tourist traffic. Therefore, although energy saving and CO2 emission reduction in the tourism industry are controlled by the growth of tourism GDP and visitor numbers, they can be enhanced by improving management levels, energy facilities, and guidance to promote low carbon consumption behavior. Based on decoupling theory and Kaya identities, the paper establishes three scenarios （A, B, and C） with 2011 taken as the base period. Tourism industry CO2 emission predications for 2015, 2018 and 2020 are undertaken for Shenzhen. The scenario analysis shows that： （5） CO2 emissions will reach 15.78 million tons in 2020 under scenario A. This amounts to 1.92 times that of the base level, and thus runs counter to the national commitment on CO2 emission reductions and to the Tourism Bureau＇ s objectives; （6） under the absolute decoupling scenario B, CO： emission growth is zero, but energy productivity must increase from the current average annual growth rate of 2.92% to an average annual growth rate of 8.81%. This seems an ideal scenario, but ＂anti-growth＂ and ＂energy production efficiency improvement＂ are difficult to implement; and, （7） under the relative decoupling scenario C, CO2 emissions will reach 11.32 million tons in 2020. This is 1.38 times that of the base level, and thus seems the most suitable scenario for the tourist industry to maintain appropriate growth while reducing energy consumption and CO2 emissions. The tourism industry can realize the national target that commits to a 40% - 50% reduction in energy intensity per unit of GDP by 2020 over 2005 figures. Therefore, scenario C is considered the dptimal method for China to develop its economy while recognizing its responsibility as a major power for protecting the environment. Finally, the paper points out that the effective realization of scenario C requires the transformation of the tourism industry development strategy from supply-oriented to demand-oriented. Moreover, it needs to adopt a comprehensive development path including aspects such as alternative energy, efficiency improvement, technology research and development, regulatory governance and social innovation.
