经济理论与经济管理
經濟理論與經濟管理
경제이론여경제관리
Economic Theory and Business Management
2014年
7期
51~63
,共null页
人民币 国际化 区域接受程度 货币替代
人民幣 國際化 區域接受程度 貨幣替代
인민폐 국제화 구역접수정도 화폐체대
RMB; internationalization; regional acceptance degree; currency substitution
金融危机以来,改革现有的国际货币体系,逐步推进“去美元化”进程,已是国际社会共识.周边化及区域化是人民币国际化进程中的重要阶段,建立人民币区域接受程度监测指标体系,具有重要意义.本文基于对东盟及中国香港人民币使用情况的分析,提出人民币区域接受程度指数的构建框架并进行影响因子的计量分析,实证结果表明：（1）在政策推动及市场需求双重作用下,未来东盟人民币接受程度将持续提升,但短期内受经济政治影响会出现较大反复;（2）受政策推动、存款规模较小以及贬值预期影响,中国香港人民币贸易接受程度的提升快于金融接受程度,提高人民币存款占比有助于提升人民币接受程度;（3）中国香港经济状况对人民币接受程度的影响力要高于内地,反映出货币国际化是市场自发选择的过程;（4）由于货币替代影响双边货币政策效果,中国香港通胀水平、利率以及内地通胀水平会受中国香港人民币接受程度的反向影响.
金融危機以來,改革現有的國際貨幣體繫,逐步推進“去美元化”進程,已是國際社會共識.週邊化及區域化是人民幣國際化進程中的重要階段,建立人民幣區域接受程度鑑測指標體繫,具有重要意義.本文基于對東盟及中國香港人民幣使用情況的分析,提齣人民幣區域接受程度指數的構建框架併進行影響因子的計量分析,實證結果錶明：（1）在政策推動及市場需求雙重作用下,未來東盟人民幣接受程度將持續提升,但短期內受經濟政治影響會齣現較大反複;（2）受政策推動、存款規模較小以及貶值預期影響,中國香港人民幣貿易接受程度的提升快于金融接受程度,提高人民幣存款佔比有助于提升人民幣接受程度;（3）中國香港經濟狀況對人民幣接受程度的影響力要高于內地,反映齣貨幣國際化是市場自髮選擇的過程;（4）由于貨幣替代影響雙邊貨幣政策效果,中國香港通脹水平、利率以及內地通脹水平會受中國香港人民幣接受程度的反嚮影響.
금융위궤이래,개혁현유적국제화폐체계,축보추진“거미원화”진정,이시국제사회공식.주변화급구역화시인민폐국제화진정중적중요계단,건립인민폐구역접수정도감측지표체계,구유중요의의.본문기우대동맹급중국향항인민폐사용정황적분석,제출인민폐구역접수정도지수적구건광가병진행영향인자적계량분석,실증결과표명：（1）재정책추동급시장수구쌍중작용하,미래동맹인민폐접수정도장지속제승,단단기내수경제정치영향회출현교대반복;（2）수정책추동、존관규모교소이급폄치예기영향,중국향항인민폐무역접수정도적제승쾌우금융접수정도,제고인민폐존관점비유조우제승인민폐접수정도;（3）중국향항경제상황대인민폐접수정도적영향력요고우내지,반영출화폐국제화시시장자발선택적과정;（4）유우화폐체대영향쌍변화폐정책효과,중국향항통창수평、리솔이급내지통창수평회수중국향항인민폐접수정도적반향영향.
To reform the international monetary system and promote the process of dedollarize gradu ally have become the consensuses of the international community after the financial crisis. Let RMB realize its surrounding and region usage is an important stage in the process of internationalization of the RMB, and it is also of significance to establish the monitoring index system of RMB regional acceptance degree. Based upon the analysis of the RMB usage in ASEAN and Hong Kong, this article proposes the building framework of the RMB regional acceptance degree index, and analyzes impact factors by the econometric tools. The empirical results show that： （1） Fueled by both policypromotion and market demand, the RMB acceptance degree in ASEAN will get a continuous promotion in the future, however, it remains very uncertain because of the economic and political factors in the short term （2） Affected by policypromo tion, smaller deposits and depreciation expectation, RMB trade acceptance degree get a faster promotion than Financial acceptance degree in Hong Kong, and it will be good for improving the RMB acceptance de gree to improve the proportion of RMB deposits; （3） The economic situation of Hong Kong has a higher influence on the RMB acceptance degree than the mainland, which Reflects that the currency international ization is a marketspontaneousselecting process; （4） The currency substitution has an effect on the per formance of bilateral monetary policy, as a result, Hong Kong＇s inflation, interest rates and the level of inflation in mainland will be influenced by the reverse impact of Hong Kong＇s RMB acceptance degree.
