CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于人民币国际化、汇率变动与汇率预期的互动机理分析，选择境外人民币存款规模作为人民币国际化程度的衡量指标，以境外人民币存款余额、人民币汇率和汇率预期为内生变量构建SVAR模型．实证分析人民币国际化与人民币汇率及汇率预期之间的动态关系。结果表明．人民币国际化程度的提升不仅会引起人民币升值。还会形成人民币升值预期：人民币升值预期对人民币国际化具有一定的促进作用。但人民币过快升值反而不利于人民币国际化。在三者的互动关系中．人民币国际化对人民币汇率变动及汇率预期的影响居于主导地位。
본문기우인민폐국제화、회솔변동여회솔예기적호동궤리분석，선택경외인민폐존관규모작위인민폐국제화정도적형량지표，이경외인민폐존관여액、인민폐회솔화회솔예기위내생변량구건SVAR모형．실증분석인민폐국제화여인민폐회솔급회솔예기지간적동태관계。결과표명．인민폐국제화정도적제승불부회인기인민폐승치。환회형성인민폐승치예기：인민폐승치예기대인민폐국제화구유일정적촉진작용。단인민폐과쾌승치반이불리우인민폐국제화。재삼자적호동관계중．인민폐국제화대인민폐회솔변동급회솔예기적영향거우주도지위。
This paper examines the dynamic relations among the internationalization of RMB, exchange rate fluctuation,and exchange rate expectations based on an SVAR model, using overseas RMB deposits as a measure of the degree of RMBinternationalization. The result shows that the advance of RMB internationalization will lead to the appreciation of RMB andthe expectation of RMB appreciation; the expectation of RMB appreciation is expected to play a certain role in promoting theinternationalization of RMB, while rapid appreciation of RMB will hinder its internationalization. In the relations among thethree variables, the impacts of RMB internationalization on RMB exchange rates and exchange rate expectations play a leadingrole.