国际金融研究
國際金融研究
국제금융연구
Studies of International Finance
2014年
8期
44~51
,共null页
欧元区 最优货币区 内生性假说 专业化假说 投资效应内生性
歐元區 最優貨幣區 內生性假說 專業化假說 投資效應內生性
구원구 최우화폐구 내생성가설 전업화가설 투자효응내생성
Euro Zone; Optimal Currency Area; the Endogeneity Hypothesis; the Specialization Hypothesis; InvestmentEffect Endogeneity
欧债危机的爆发再度引发人们对欧元区是不是一个“最优货币区”以及最优货币区能否“内生”的思考与争论。本文基于欧元区主要成员国2000-2012年的横向数据,检验欧元区的经济增长同步性和投资效应内生性。结果表明:(1)欧元区的经济增长同步性在观测期内有所下降。 (2)成员国对内直接投资比重每增加1%.成员国与欧元区GDP增长相关程度就增加0.02%。投资效应的内生性并不明显。在此基础上对内生性假说和专业化假说的内在逻辑与冲突进行辨析.对最优货币区理论进行阶段性反思。
歐債危機的爆髮再度引髮人們對歐元區是不是一箇“最優貨幣區”以及最優貨幣區能否“內生”的思攷與爭論。本文基于歐元區主要成員國2000-2012年的橫嚮數據,檢驗歐元區的經濟增長同步性和投資效應內生性。結果錶明:(1)歐元區的經濟增長同步性在觀測期內有所下降。 (2)成員國對內直接投資比重每增加1%.成員國與歐元區GDP增長相關程度就增加0.02%。投資效應的內生性併不明顯。在此基礎上對內生性假說和專業化假說的內在邏輯與遲突進行辨析.對最優貨幣區理論進行階段性反思。
구채위궤적폭발재도인발인문대구원구시불시일개“최우화폐구”이급최우화폐구능부“내생”적사고여쟁론。본문기우구원구주요성원국2000-2012년적횡향수거,검험구원구적경제증장동보성화투자효응내생성。결과표명:(1)구원구적경제증장동보성재관측기내유소하강。 (2)성원국대내직접투자비중매증가1%.성원국여구원구GDP증장상관정도취증가0.02%。투자효응적내생성병불명현。재차기출상대내생성가설화전업화가설적내재라집여충돌진행변석.대최우화폐구이론진행계단성반사。
The European debt crisis once again initiated people to think about and debate that, "Is Euro zone an 'opti-mal currency area'?" and "Are optimum currency areas endogenous? ". Based on the horizontal data of 2000-2011 of 11members, we tested the economic growth synchronization and investment effect endogeneity of the Euro zone. The resultsshowed that: (1) economic growth synchronization of the Euro zone decreased during the observation period. (2) when theinternal direct investment of the member states increased by 1%, the correlation degree between their respective GDP growthand the overall Euro zone GDP growth will be increased by 0.02%. The endogeneity of investment effect was not obvious. Onthis basis, we analyzed the internal logics and conflicts between the endogeneity hypothesis and the specialization hypothesis,and reflected on the theory of optimum currency areas periodically.