CAJ | 학술논문

从长远来看，腐败阻碍了经济发展，因而反腐败成为各国政府的重要任务；然而，反腐败又会影响政治稳定。因此，反腐败与政治稳定之间存在着权衡取舍。文章构建了一个最优反腐败力度的理论模型，分析了政治周期与反腐败之间的关系。文章推测，在政治敏感时期，反腐败力度会减弱。文章收集了2003～2013年中国352个厅级以上官员的腐败案例。通过计量经济学分析发现，全国和地方“两会”或春节等政治敏感时期，反腐败力度显著减弱。此外，从中央直接调任纪委书记的省份，或者媒体曝光度越高的省份，政治周期对反腐败力度的影响越是显著。文章的发现对于当前的反腐败工作具有重要的政策含义。
종장원래간，부패조애료경제발전，인이반부패성위각국정부적중요임무；연이，반부패우회영향정치은정。인차，반부패여정치은정지간존재착권형취사。문장구건료일개최우반부패력도적이론모형，분석료정치주기여반부패지간적관계。문장추측，재정치민감시기，반부패력도회감약。문장수집료2003～2013년중국352개청급이상관원적부패안례。통과계량경제학분석발현，전국화지방“량회”혹춘절등정치민감시기，반부패력도현저감약。차외，종중앙직접조임기위서기적성빈，혹자매체폭광도월고적성빈，정치주기대반부패력도적영향월시현저。문장적발현대우당전적반부패공작구유중요적정책함의。
In the long run, corruption undermines economic development, so eliminating corruption is an impor-tant task for governments. However, combatting corruption may threaten political stability, so there should be atrade- off between combating corruption and political stability. This paper discusses the relationship betweenpolitical cycles and combatting corruption, by building a model of an optimal fight against corruption. We pre-dict that during politically sensitive periods, the intensity of combatting corruption will abate. We collected 352Chinese bureau -level corruption cases during 2003 -2013. With theoretical prediction, we find： during thenational and provincial people＇s congresses and committees of the CPPCC, Spring Festival and other political e-vents, the intensity of the fight against corruption significantly decreased. Administrative areas at the provinciallevel whose secretaries offor discipline inspection are directly appointed by the CPC Central Com-mittee, or whose exposure to media is high, the effect of political cycles has a more obvious effect on their fightagainst corruption. These findings have important implications for the anti -corruption policy.