CAJ | 학술논문

维护社会稳定是现代国家治理体系的重要组成部分，而如何对某个地区进行综合性、多因素的社会稳定风险分析是国家治理能力的核心之一。文章认为所谓社会稳定风险实则是社会不稳定的可能性，而社会不稳定从本质上来讲是社会生态系统中个体行为的综合表现，个体行为又是行动者对环境因素的主观认知和价值判断的产物，因此，环境因素构成了社会不稳定行为的基本诱因和必要条件。文章基于社会生态系统的“环境一行为”视角，构建了环境因素和社会不稳定行为之间的因果关系，提出了可能增大社会不稳定事件发生概率的三十六个命题，并通过案例实证分析了其中的关键要素和监测目标，为进行综合性社会稳定风险评估提供了可操作性的方案。
유호사회은정시현대국가치리체계적중요조성부분，이여하대모개지구진행종합성、다인소적사회은정풍험분석시국가치리능력적핵심지일。문장인위소위사회은정풍험실칙시사회불은정적가능성，이사회불은정종본질상래강시사회생태계통중개체행위적종합표현，개체행위우시행동자대배경인소적주관인지화개치판단적산물，인차，배경인소구성료사회불은정행위적기본유인화필요조건。문장기우사회생태계통적“배경일행위”시각，구건료배경인소화사회불은정행위지간적인과관계，제출료가능증대사회불은정사건발생개솔적삼십륙개명제，병통과안례실증분석료기중적관건요소화감측목표，위진행종합성사회은정풍험평고제공료가조작성적방안。
Maintaining social stability is an important part of the modern national governance system, while a comprehensive, multi -factor social stability risk analysis is the key to national governance capacity. The so - called social stability risk actually is the possibility for social instability, and social instability in essence is the comprehensive expression of individual behavior in social ecological system, while the behavior of an individual is guided by subjective cognition and value judgment of environmental factors. Environmental factors, therefore, constitute the basic factors and the necessary conditions for behavior leading to social instability. This paper, based on the perspective of ＂environment - behavior＂ within a socio - ecological system, builds the causal rela- tionship between environmental factors and behavior leading to social instability, puts forward thirty - six propo- sitions that may increase social instability probability, analyzes the key elements and the monitoring targets according to the case studies, and provides a practical scheme for comprehensive social stability risk assessment.