经济社会体制比较
經濟社會體製比較
경제사회체제비교
Comparative Economic and Social Systems
2014年
4期
233~242
,共null页
商业银行 流动性波动 银行间同业拆借利率 居民储蓄存款 外汇占款
商業銀行 流動性波動 銀行間同業拆藉利率 居民儲蓄存款 外彙佔款
상업은행 류동성파동 은행간동업탁차리솔 거민저축존관 외회점관
Commercial Bank; Liquidity Fluctuation; Shibor; Household Savings Deposits of Residents; RMBCounterpart of Foreign Exchange Reserves
目前，我国商业银行存贷差长期内将持续扩大，短期内上下波动，银行间市场利率也呈现出上下波动的趋势，商业银行流动性呈现出波动的特点。中国人民银行将商业银行超额存款准备金率和银行间市场利率结合起来判断流动性波动，同时根据中央银行票据招标利率来决定流动性释放和回收手段。文章在梳理流动性波动测度方法的基础上．运用VAR模型分析居民储蓄存款、现金漏损率和外汇占款对商业银行流动性波动影响的时间，以及各因素对商业银行流动性波动的贡献程度。结果表明：（1）外汇占款是引起商业银行流动性波动的主要因素；（2）居民储蓄存款的影响次之。居民储蓄存款在这三因素中对流动性波动的影响期最长；（3）现金漏损率的影响最小。
目前，我國商業銀行存貸差長期內將持續擴大，短期內上下波動，銀行間市場利率也呈現齣上下波動的趨勢，商業銀行流動性呈現齣波動的特點。中國人民銀行將商業銀行超額存款準備金率和銀行間市場利率結閤起來判斷流動性波動，同時根據中央銀行票據招標利率來決定流動性釋放和迴收手段。文章在梳理流動性波動測度方法的基礎上．運用VAR模型分析居民儲蓄存款、現金漏損率和外彙佔款對商業銀行流動性波動影響的時間，以及各因素對商業銀行流動性波動的貢獻程度。結果錶明：（1）外彙佔款是引起商業銀行流動性波動的主要因素；（2）居民儲蓄存款的影響次之。居民儲蓄存款在這三因素中對流動性波動的影響期最長；（3）現金漏損率的影響最小。
목전，아국상업은행존대차장기내장지속확대，단기내상하파동，은행간시장리솔야정현출상하파동적추세，상업은행류동성정현출파동적특점。중국인민은행장상업은행초액존관준비금솔화은행간시장리솔결합기래판단류동성파동，동시근거중앙은행표거초표리솔래결정류동성석방화회수수단。문장재소리류동성파동측도방법적기출상．운용VAR모형분석거민저축존관、현금루손솔화외회점관대상업은행류동성파동영향적시간，이급각인소대상업은행류동성파동적공헌정도。결과표명：（1）외회점관시인기상업은행류동성파동적주요인소；（2）거민저축존관적영향차지。거민저축존관재저삼인소중대류동성파동적영향기최장；（3）현금루손솔적영향최소。
The savings and lending differential of China＇s commercial banks will continue to widen in the long -term, with short - term fluctuations. Interest rates in the interbank market are fluctuating, so is commercialbank liquidity. The People＇s Bank of China determines liquidity fluctuations on the basis of commercial banks＇excess deposit reserve ratio and interbank market interest rates. In addition, it determines liquidity tenders re-lease and recovery methods in accordance with central bank bills＇ interest rates. On the basis of a discussion ofliquidity fluctuation measurement methods, this paper uses the VAR model to analyze for how long householdsavings deposits, cash leakage rates and RMB counterpart of foreign exchange reserves affect commercial banks＇liquidity fluctuations, as well as how they contribute to these fluctuations. The results are： （ 1 ） Foreign ex-change is the main factor causing fluctuations in the liquidity of commercial banks. （2） The impact of house-hold savings deposits follows. Household savings deposits affect liquidity fluctuations the longest. （3） The cashleakage rates have the least impact on liquidity fluctuations.
