CAJ | 학술논문

近年来中国出现了经济回调与就业上扬并存的格局，其中服务业发挥了重要作用。本文通过实证分析证明了服务业具有促进就业增长的长效机制：首先，基于鲍莫尔-富克斯假说的检验发现，中国服务业的需求收入弹性大于1，结合当前服务业发展滞后的情况，未来具有广阔的发展潜力。其次，基于修正的就业方程我们发现，服务业就业弹性远高于工业部门，而且具有更强的就业粘性。服务业发展既可以充当国民经济的就业海绵，还可以充当就业的稳定器。中国当前就业压力主要来自于农民工和大学毕业生，要解决好这两个群体的就业问题，既要推动传统服务业的发展，还要加快新兴服务业的升级，二者不可偏废。最后，本文提出了相应的建议。
근년래중국출현료경제회조여취업상양병존적격국，기중복무업발휘료중요작용。본문통과실증분석증명료복무업구유촉진취업증장적장효궤제：수선，기우포막이-부극사가설적검험발현，중국복무업적수구수입탄성대우1，결합당전복무업발전체후적정황，미래구유엄활적발전잠력。기차，기우수정적취업방정아문발현，복무업취업탄성원고우공업부문，이차구유경강적취업점성。복무업발전기가이충당국민경제적취업해면，환가이충당취업적은정기。중국당전취업압력주요래자우농민공화대학필업생，요해결호저량개군체적취업문제，기요추동전통복무업적발전，환요가쾌신흥복무업적승급，이자불가편폐。최후，본문제출료상응적건의。
In recent years, there exist both economic callback and employment increase in China, and the service industry plays an important role. Through empirical analysis we prove that the service industry has a long-term mechanism to promote the employment growth. Firstly, based on the Baumol-Fuchs hypothesis test, we find that the income elasticity of demand of Chinese service industry exceeds 1, and Chinese service industry has great development potential due to its inadequate development. Secondly, based on the modified employment equation, we find that the elasticity of employment of service industry is far higher than that of the industrial sector, and service industry has stronger employment stickiness. Service industry can serve as the absorber and stabilizer of employment. Chinese current employment pressure mainly grows out Of migrant workers and college graduates, and to solve the employment problem of the two groups, it is essential to promote both the development of traditional service industry and the upgrading of emerging service industry. At last, this paper proposes corresponding suggestions.