CAJ | 학술논문

制度因素会对美国经济冲击及传导产生影响，本文把美国供给冲击、需求冲击和货币冲击纳入同一个分析框架，通过建立稳健性的计量模型探讨了美国经济冲击对东亚地区经济波动的影响，并结合东亚地区具体的汇率制度和资本开放度等因素进行了综合分析。研究发现固定汇率制度和中间汇率制度使美国货币政策加剧了对东亚地区经济波动的冲击，但浮动汇率制度下的美国货币冲击却能平抑东亚经济的波动；资本开放度对东亚经济的波动会产生滞后效应，滞后一期的资本开放度会加剧东亚地区的经济波动。
제도인소회대미국경제충격급전도산생영향，본문파미국공급충격、수구충격화화폐충격납입동일개분석광가，통과건립은건성적계량모형탐토료미국경제충격대동아지구경제파동적영향，병결합동아지구구체적회솔제도화자본개방도등인소진행료종합분석。연구발현고정회솔제도화중간회솔제도사미국화폐정책가극료대동아지구경제파동적충격，단부동회솔제도하적미국화폐충격각능평억동아경제적파동；자본개방도대동아경제적파동회산생체후효응，체후일기적자본개방도회가극동아지구적경제파동。
Institutional factors will impact the U.S.economic shocks and transmission .The paper links the U.S.supply shocks, demand shocks and money shocks to the same analytical framework , analyzes the impact of U.S.economic shocks on the East Asian economic fluctuations , through the establishment of the robust econometric model , and carries out comprehensive analysis combining with the specific exchange rate regime and the capital openness in East Asia .We find that both the fixed exchange rate regime and the intermediate exchange rate regime make the U .S.money shocks ex-acerbate East Asian economic fluctuations , but under the floating exchange rate system , effect of U.S.money shocks im-pact on the East Asian economic fluctuations is negative , which means it can stabilize economic fluctuations .Capital openness will have a lag effect on East Asian economic fluctuations , one period lagged capital openness will exacerbate East Asian economic fluctuations .