中国工业经济
中國工業經濟
중국공업경제
China Industrial Economy
2014年
8期
31~43
,共null页
可计算一般均衡模型 输煤输电 能源运输 政府补贴
可計算一般均衡模型 輸煤輸電 能源運輸 政府補貼
가계산일반균형모형 수매수전 능원운수 정부보첩
computable general equlibrium（CGE） model; coal transportation and electric transmission; energytransport; government subsidy
本文利用可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，发现对于山西而言，输煤远优于输电。若落实变“晋煤外送”为“晋电外送”能源战略，必须对山西所受损失进行补贴。本文在山西“扩送电”情况下，分别以“稳增长”和“调结构”为补贴目标，设计了一系列针对山西主要经济部门的年度补贴方案，并比较分析了不同补贴方案对山西的经济和社会影响。最后，以实现山西长远发展为要求，确定了最优补贴方案。发现山西在以增加“扩送电”投资30％的前提下，若想同时兼顾“稳增长”和“调结构”目标，最优补贴方案应该对原煤部门征收30亿元“调结构”资金，对农业部门补贴35亿元，对制造业部门补贴94亿元，对其他服务业部门补贴6亿元。并据此提出中央统筹补贴资金分摊和筹集、适当上调山西外送电力上网价格、保证及时和足额支付补贴资金以及加快区域产业结构调整步伐等政策建议。
本文利用可計算一般均衡（CGE）模型，髮現對于山西而言，輸煤遠優于輸電。若落實變“晉煤外送”為“晉電外送”能源戰略，必鬚對山西所受損失進行補貼。本文在山西“擴送電”情況下，分彆以“穩增長”和“調結構”為補貼目標，設計瞭一繫列針對山西主要經濟部門的年度補貼方案，併比較分析瞭不同補貼方案對山西的經濟和社會影響。最後，以實現山西長遠髮展為要求，確定瞭最優補貼方案。髮現山西在以增加“擴送電”投資30％的前提下，若想同時兼顧“穩增長”和“調結構”目標，最優補貼方案應該對原煤部門徵收30億元“調結構”資金，對農業部門補貼35億元，對製造業部門補貼94億元，對其他服務業部門補貼6億元。併據此提齣中央統籌補貼資金分攤和籌集、適噹上調山西外送電力上網價格、保證及時和足額支付補貼資金以及加快區域產業結構調整步伐等政策建議。
본문이용가계산일반균형（CGE）모형，발현대우산서이언，수매원우우수전。약락실변“진매외송”위“진전외송”능원전략，필수대산서소수손실진행보첩。본문재산서“확송전”정황하，분별이“은증장”화“조결구”위보첩목표，설계료일계렬침대산서주요경제부문적년도보첩방안，병비교분석료불동보첩방안대산서적경제화사회영향。최후，이실현산서장원발전위요구，학정료최우보첩방안。발현산서재이증가“확송전”투자30％적전제하，약상동시겸고“은증장”화“조결구”목표，최우보첩방안응해대원매부문정수30억원“조결구”자금，대농업부문보첩35억원，대제조업부문보첩94억원，대기타복무업부문보첩6억원。병거차제출중앙통주보첩자금분탄화주집、괄당상조산서외송전력상망개격、보증급시화족액지부보첩자금이급가쾌구역산업결구조정보벌등정책건의。
This paper uses a computable general equilibrium （CGE） model; found that for Shanxi province, coal transportation is far better than electric power transmission. If switching from coal transportation to electric power transmission, must be subsidies to loss on the Shanxi. In case of Shanxi ＂expanding electricity transmission＂, took ＂steady growth＂ and ＂adjusting structure＂ as subsidies goal, this paper designed a series of targeted subsidies to Shanxi＇s main sectors of the economy, and a comparative analysis of the different subsidy scheme for Shanxi＇s economic and social impact was down. Found in Shanxi in order to increase the premise of ＂expanding electricity transmission＂ under the investment 30%, the optimal subsidy scheme is that collect 3 billion yuan of adjusting structure funds from the coal sector, give the agriculture sector 3.5 billion yuan, give the manufacturing sector 9.4 billion yuan and give the other service sector 0.6 billion yuan. Then put forward the corresponding policy recommendations accordingly： make a comprehensive plan of spreading and raising the subsidy funds by the central government, rise the pool purchase price of electric power transmission, ensure paying the subsidy funds seasonable and sufficiently and speed up the regional industrial reconstructuring.
