中国工业经济
中國工業經濟
중국공업경제
China Industrial Economy
2014年
8期
57~69
,共null页
环境规制强度 产业结构调整 倒逼机制 门槛效应 空间异质性
環境規製彊度 產業結構調整 倒逼機製 門檻效應 空間異質性
배경규제강도 산업결구조정 도핍궤제 문함효응 공간이질성
environmental regulation intensity; industrial restructuring; reversed force mechanism; thresholdeffect ; spatial heterogeneity
当经济可持续发展面临趋紧的环境约束和转型压力，产业结构调整成为解决保增长、促减排这一“两难”格局的关键路径。本文选取1999--2011年中国30个省份的相关面板数据，在区分正式环境规制和非正式规制的基础上，就环境规制能否成为一个有效的倒逼机制驱动产业结构的调整进行了检验，并运用门槛回归模型检验了环境规制驱动产业结构调整的门槛特征及空间异质性。面板回归和门槛检验的结果表明：正式环境规制能有效驱动产业结构调整，因此可将环境规制作为产业结构调整的新动力：当以工业污染排放强度作为门槛变量时，随着正式环境规制强度的由弱变强，它会对产业结构调整产生先抑制、后促进、再抑制的影响，从而验证了两者关系中显著的门槛特征和空间异质性。非正式规制强度指标总体上与产业结构调整正相关，表明非正式规制的经济效应在中国已初步显现：而外商直接投资和产业规模均不利于产业结构调整。
噹經濟可持續髮展麵臨趨緊的環境約束和轉型壓力，產業結構調整成為解決保增長、促減排這一“兩難”格跼的關鍵路徑。本文選取1999--2011年中國30箇省份的相關麵闆數據，在區分正式環境規製和非正式規製的基礎上，就環境規製能否成為一箇有效的倒逼機製驅動產業結構的調整進行瞭檢驗，併運用門檻迴歸模型檢驗瞭環境規製驅動產業結構調整的門檻特徵及空間異質性。麵闆迴歸和門檻檢驗的結果錶明：正式環境規製能有效驅動產業結構調整，因此可將環境規製作為產業結構調整的新動力：噹以工業汙染排放彊度作為門檻變量時，隨著正式環境規製彊度的由弱變彊，它會對產業結構調整產生先抑製、後促進、再抑製的影響，從而驗證瞭兩者關繫中顯著的門檻特徵和空間異質性。非正式規製彊度指標總體上與產業結構調整正相關，錶明非正式規製的經濟效應在中國已初步顯現：而外商直接投資和產業規模均不利于產業結構調整。
당경제가지속발전면림추긴적배경약속화전형압력，산업결구조정성위해결보증장、촉감배저일“량난”격국적관건로경。본문선취1999--2011년중국30개성빈적상관면판수거，재구분정식배경규제화비정식규제적기출상，취배경규제능부성위일개유효적도핍궤제구동산업결구적조정진행료검험，병운용문함회귀모형검험료배경규제구동산업결구조정적문함특정급공간이질성。면판회귀화문함검험적결과표명：정식배경규제능유효구동산업결구조정，인차가장배경규제작위산업결구조정적신동력：당이공업오염배방강도작위문함변량시，수착정식배경규제강도적유약변강，타회대산업결구조정산생선억제、후촉진、재억제적영향，종이험증료량자관계중현저적문함특정화공간이질성。비정식규제강도지표총체상여산업결구조정정상관，표명비정식규제적경제효응재중국이초보현현：이외상직접투자화산업규모균불리우산업결구조정。
When the economic growth faces tightening environmental constrains and pressures of economic transformation, clean adjustment of industrial structure could be the critical path to resolve the ＂dilemma＂ which refers to maintaining economic growth as well as promoting emission reduction. By using the panel-data of China＇s 30 provinces from 1999 to 2011 and distinguishing the concept of formal regulation and informal regulation, the paper tests that if the environmental regulation could play a role of reversed force mechanism in promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. Then establish a threshold regression model to examine the spatial heterogeneity in the reversed force effect of environmental regulation. The result shows that the formal regulation can significantly stimulate the industries to be restructured, but with significant threshold characteristics and spatial heterogeneity. When use the intensity of industrial pollution as the threshold parameter, with formal regulation strength increasing, its effect on industrial restructuring will turn to be inhibiting first, then promoting and to be inhibiting again. The intensity of informal regulation is positively correlated with the industrial restructuring, which indicates that the economic effect of informal regulation has initially appeared in China. But FDI and industrial scale have a negative impact on industrial restructuring.
