CAJ | 학술논문

我国物流成本较发达国家一直偏高，2010年以来油价高企推动物流成本上升，物流成本对价格水平的影响受到广泛关注，但鲜有关于物流成本对价格水平的定量研究．本文通过构建因子增广向量自回归（FAVAR）模型深入研究了我国物流成本对工业产品产量和价格水平的影响与传导机制，结果表明1）物流成本对主要工业产品产量和社会物流总额存在长期负向影响．2）物流成本对价格水平存在正向影响，并且CPI对物流成本冲击的反应比PPI更加灵敏，反应幅度也更大．3）物流成本对CPI和PPI的冲击主要通过食品价格传导．总之，物流成本是通货膨胀的重要“推动力”之一，降低物流成本对于扩大产出和稳定物价水平具有重要意义．
아국물류성본교발체국가일직편고，2010년이래유개고기추동물류성본상승，물류성본대개격수평적영향수도엄범관주，단선유관우물류성본대개격수평적정량연구．본문통과구건인자증엄향량자회귀（FAVAR）모형심입연구료아국물류성본대공업산품산량화개격수평적영향여전도궤제，결과표명1）물류성본대주요공업산품산량화사회물류총액존재장기부향영향．2）물류성본대개격수평존재정향영향，병차CPI대물류성본충격적반응비PPI경가령민，반응폭도야경대．3）물류성본대CPI화PPI적충격주요통과식품개격전도．총지，물류성본시통화팽창적중요“추동력”지일，강저물류성본대우확대산출화은정물개수평구유중요의의．
China＇s logistics cost has been higher than developed countries for a long time. High oilprice since 2010 promoted the increase of logistics costs. The impact of logistics cost on inflation receivedextensive concern, however there is little related quantitative research. This paper investigated the impactof logistics cost on output and price level in China by a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model（FAVAR）. The main findings are the following. First, logistics cost has a negative long-term impact on theoutput of main industrial products. Second, logistics cost has a positive effect on price levels, especially,CPI responses more significantly to logistics cost than PPI. Third, the impulse of logistics cost to CPI andPPI is mainly transmitted through food price. In a word, logistics cost is an important impetus to inflation,and reducing logistics cost is of great importance for expanding output and stabilizing price levels.