CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用两轮微观调查面板数据实证检验中国公共转移支付对家庭贫困脆弱性的影响。首先基于期望贫困的脆弱性理论计算出脆弱性，然后使用纠正选择性偏误的倾向值匹配得分倍差方法来检验公共转移支付的效应。结果显示，尽管贫困发生率呈现下降态势，但城乡家庭遭受贫困脆弱性的比例不容忽视；随着贫困线标准的提高，贫困发生率与脆弱性之间的差异越来越小；教育程度、家庭规模、就业状态、工作性质及地区变量同时同方向地影响到贫困及脆弱性；无论贫困线划在何处，公共转移支付对慢性贫困和暂时性贫困的脆弱性没有任何影响。
본문이용량륜미관조사면판수거실증검험중국공공전이지부대가정빈곤취약성적영향。수선기우기망빈곤적취약성이론계산출취약성，연후사용규정선택성편오적경향치필배득분배차방법래검험공공전이지부적효응。결과현시，진관빈곤발생솔정현하강태세，단성향가정조수빈곤취약성적비례불용홀시；수착빈곤선표준적제고，빈곤발생솔여취약성지간적차이월래월소；교육정도、가정규모、취업상태、공작성질급지구변량동시동방향지영향도빈곤급취약성；무론빈곤선화재하처，공공전이지부대만성빈곤화잠시성빈곤적취약성몰유임하영향。
This paper empirically investigates the impact of public transfers on vulnerability. It makes use of two round panel household survey data. It adopts the vulnerability as expected poverty method for estimating vulnerability and uses the difference-in-dlfference approach with propensity score matching adjustment in order to test the effect of public transfers on vulnerability. The main results are that even though the cross section data show a positive pattern in lowering poverty over time for china, panel data show the large amount of vulnerability that Chinese people are subject to. The difference between poverty and vulnerability becomes smaller along with rising poverty line. Education, househould size, employment, work status and area have same effect on poverty and vulnerability simultaneously. Whatever the poverty line is, the impact of the public transfers has little impact on vulnerability of the transitory poor and the chronic poor.