CAJ | 학술논문

2001年以来中国对外直接投资实现了持续快速的增长，本文旨在考察对外直接投资究竟对企业出口产生了怎样的影响。利用高度细化的工业企业数据库和海关贸易数据库首次从微观层面进行系统的研究，结果表明，对外直接投资不仅显著地提高了企业出口占销售的比例，而且还提高了企业出口的概率。此外，通过引入生存分析模型的研究表明，对外直接投资显著降低了企业退出出口市场的风险，即倾向于延长企业出口持续期。本文从微观层面证实了中国对外直接投资具有显著的出口创造效应，这一核心结论在剔除贸易中间商、排除加工贸易、剔除投资于避税港的企业以及采用最近邻匹配样本进行估计时都非常稳健。
2001년이래중국대외직접투자실현료지속쾌속적증장，본문지재고찰대외직접투자구경대기업출구산생료즘양적영향。이용고도세화적공업기업수거고화해관무역수거고수차종미관층면진행계통적연구，결과표명，대외직접투자불부현저지제고료기업출구점소수적비례，이차환제고료기업출구적개솔。차외，통과인입생존분석모형적연구표명，대외직접투자현저강저료기업퇴출출구시장적풍험，즉경향우연장기업출구지속기。본문종미관층면증실료중국대외직접투자구유현저적출구창조효응，저일핵심결론재척제무역중간상、배제가공무역、척제투자우피세항적기업이급채용최근린필배양본진행고계시도비상은건。
This paper aims to analyze how does outward FDI affect firms＇ export. Using highly disaggregated Chinese firm-level production data and product- level trade data, this paper explores such an important question systematically from the microcosmic aspect. The results show that, outward FDI not only significantly raises firms＇ export intensity, but it also raises the probability of firms＇ export. Furthermore, the survival analysis model indicates that outward FDI signifi- cantly decreases the hazard rate of firm exits from export market, which means it helps to raise the duration of firm＇s export. This paper confirms that there exists a significant export-creating effect for Chinese outward FDI firms from the microcosmic aspect. Such conclusion remains the same for various robustness tests, like eliminating intermediary firms, eliminating processing trade, eliminating the firms which invest in tax havens, and using another matching technique such as nearest neighbor matching.