CAJ | 학술논문

针对我国CPI统计中所存在的权重偏误等问题，以自有住房支出估计和CPI分类权重测度为突破口，根据国外官方统计部门和央行机构普遍采用的剔除法和截尾平均法测算了我国的核心通货膨胀率。结果显示，测算结果较好地反映了一般价格水平的长期变化情况，具有相对的稳定性，剔除法的测算结果整体上优于截尾平均法；在剔除法的应用中，分类项目的进一步细化有助于获得稳定性更强、“削峰平谷”效果更好的核心通货膨胀率序列；通过剔除法的测算结果来看，核心通货膨胀率序列较好地契合了我国货币政策窗口期。
침대아국CPI통계중소존재적권중편오등문제，이자유주방지출고계화CPI분류권중측도위돌파구，근거국외관방통계부문화앙행궤구보편채용적척제법화절미평균법측산료아국적핵심통화팽창솔。결과현시，측산결과교호지반영료일반개격수평적장기변화정황，구유상대적은정성，척제법적측산결과정체상우우절미평균법；재척제법적응용중，분류항목적진일보세화유조우획득은정성경강、“삭봉평곡”효과경호적핵심통화팽창솔서렬；통과척제법적측산결과래간，핵심통화팽창솔서렬교호지계합료아국화폐정책창구기。
The paper analyzes the existence problems of weight bias in China＇s CPI statistics firstly, and then by making the estimated expenditures in owner-occupied housing and the measurement of CPI categorization weight as the break- through, the paper measures the core inflation rate by using excluding method and the trimmed mean method which are generally adopted by foreign official statistics departments and central agencies. The result shows that： the measurement can better reflect the long-term changes of the general price level, the result is relative sta- bility~ and the excluding method is better than the trimmed mean method overall. In the application of the excluding method, the classification project＇s further refinement is helpful to get better core inflation rate sequence which is more stable and more smooth. From the measurement results, the core inflation sequence better fits the ＂window period＂ of monetary policy.