企业经济
企業經濟
기업경제
Enterprise Economy
2014年
8期
158~162
,共null页
仓储人才 灰色预测模型 趋势外推模型 组合预测模型
倉儲人纔 灰色預測模型 趨勢外推模型 組閤預測模型
창저인재 회색예측모형 추세외추모형 조합예측모형
warehousing personnel; grey prediction model; trend extrapolation model; combination forecasting model
近年来,物流业的飞速发展带来了对物流人才的迫切需求。仓储作为物流中的核心环节,其人才的缺乏已经成为亟待解决的重要问题。如何紧贴市场和产业需求,培养出适合仓储业发展的高素质人才,成为各个国家和地区关注的焦点。本文按照东部、中部、西部、东北四个区域,以现有的人才资料和数据为基础,运用GM（1,1）灰色预测模型和趋势外推法,对各地区的仓储人才进行需求预测,然后运用组合预测法对预测结果进行修正,并对预测结果进行分析,以期为区域仓储人才的规划与决策提供科学的理论参考。
近年來,物流業的飛速髮展帶來瞭對物流人纔的迫切需求。倉儲作為物流中的覈心環節,其人纔的缺乏已經成為亟待解決的重要問題。如何緊貼市場和產業需求,培養齣適閤倉儲業髮展的高素質人纔,成為各箇國傢和地區關註的焦點。本文按照東部、中部、西部、東北四箇區域,以現有的人纔資料和數據為基礎,運用GM（1,1）灰色預測模型和趨勢外推法,對各地區的倉儲人纔進行需求預測,然後運用組閤預測法對預測結果進行脩正,併對預測結果進行分析,以期為區域倉儲人纔的規劃與決策提供科學的理論參攷。
근년래,물류업적비속발전대래료대물류인재적박절수구。창저작위물류중적핵심배절,기인재적결핍이경성위극대해결적중요문제。여하긴첩시장화산업수구,배양출괄합창저업발전적고소질인재,성위각개국가화지구관주적초점。본문안조동부、중부、서부、동북사개구역,이현유적인재자료화수거위기출,운용GM（1,1）회색예측모형화추세외추법,대각지구적창저인재진행수구예측,연후운용조합예측법대예측결과진행수정,병대예측결과진행분석,이기위구역창저인재적규화여결책제공과학적이론삼고。
In recent years, the rapid development of logistics industry has brought the urgent demands of logistics talents. Storage is the core link in logistics, and its lack of talents has become an important problem to be resolved. How to meet the demands of market and industry and cultivate high- quality talents for the storage industry becomes the focus of attention of various countries and regions. Inaecordance with the eastern, central, western, northeastregions, based on the existing personnel information and the data, this paper applies GM （1, 1 ） grey prediction model and trend extrapolation method to forecast the demand of regional warehouse personnel, and then uses the combination forecasting method to predict the result for correction to analyze the prediction results in order to provide a scientific theory reference for the planning and decision of regional warehouse personnel.
