CAJ | 학술논문

2000年以来，我国人均收入超过1000美元，国内旅游进入快速增长期，呈现抗周期性的新特征。本文在形态指标分析的基础上，界定了旅游业抗周期的概念及两种表现形式。相关统计数据实证检验发现，2003年SARS危机后，2004年国内旅游强力反弹，2009年国民经济进入低谷期后国内旅游率先恢复，形成一种受短期波动影响较小的惯性增长。同时，本文依据1994年～2012年时间序列数据建立了双对数模型，分析全国及城市居民国内旅游收入弹性和价格弹性，结果显示，收入需求弹性大于价格需求弹性，收入增长对居民国内旅游的推动作用大于价格的限制，形成了“刚性”的旅游需求，这是新时期国内旅游迅猛增长及抗周期性形成的根本原因。
2000년이래，아국인균수입초과1000미원，국내여유진입쾌속증장기，정현항주기성적신특정。본문재형태지표분석적기출상，계정료여유업항주기적개념급량충표현형식。상관통계수거실증검험발현，2003년SARS위궤후，2004년국내여유강력반탄，2009년국민경제진입저곡기후국내여유솔선회복，형성일충수단기파동영향교소적관성증장。동시，본문의거1994년～2012년시간서렬수거건립료쌍대수모형，분석전국급성시거민국내여유수입탄성화개격탄성，결과현시，수입수구탄성대우개격수구탄성，수입증장대거민국내여유적추동작용대우개격적한제，형성료“강성”적여유수구，저시신시기국내여유신맹증장급항주기성형성적근본원인。
China＇ s domestic tourism presents a new anti-cyclical characteristic since 2000, in which China＇ s per capita income reached $ 1000. The domestic tourism demand and expense have undergone a great increase, and tourism development has developed at a rapid pace. Based on morphological indicators, this paper defined the anti-cyclicality of domestic tourism, explained its short-term performance, and conducted an empirical test. The results show that： The short-term economic fluctuations impact on domestic tourism is relatively small, it rebounded first after the SARS crisis in 2003 and restored fast in the 2009 economic downturn period; it created a sort of inertia growth. In accordance with the time series of 1994 -2011, it established a double logarithmic model and calculated income elasticity of demand and price elasticity of demand. The findings suggest that the pulling effect of income on travel demand, which is the most fundamental reason for the new period of China＇ s domestic tourism, is far greater than price restrictions that forms a rigid demand for tourism.