CAJ | 학술논문

国内外关于入境旅游的研究已有丰富积累，但现有关于我国入境旅游影响因素的研究均较少考虑地理邻近与空间关联性、空间非平稳性等特征。本文基于修正的旅游引力模型，首次运用地理加权回归模型，探析经济外向度、旅游资源和地理距离对我国31个省域入境旅游影响的空间差异。研究表明：入境游客在空间上具有正相关性（空间依赖性）和集聚特征；经济外向度和旅游资源对入境游客数量都有积极的影响，旅游资源的促进作用相对较大，而地理距离的增加对入境游客数量有负向的影响。并且，各影响因素的系数存在空间非平稳性，经济外向度和地理距离估计系数形成了以东北地区为核心，不断向西南方向扩散的圈层；相反的是，旅游资源对入境旅游的作用程度形成了由西南向东北地区逐渐递减的格局。研究也发现，邻近地区的入境游客数量对本地区具有正向影响，境外游客从目的地向周边地区扩散，省区之间存在空间溢出效应。
국내외관우입경여유적연구이유봉부적루，단현유관우아국입경여유영향인소적연구균교소고필지리린근여공간관련성、공간비평은성등특정。본문기우수정적여유인력모형，수차운용지리가권회귀모형，탐석경제외향도、여유자원화지리거리대아국31개성역입경여유영향적공간차이。연구표명：입경유객재공간상구유정상관성（공간의뢰성）화집취특정；경제외향도화여유자원대입경유객수량도유적겁적영향，여유자원적촉진작용상대교대，이지리거리적증가대입경유객수량유부향적영향。병차，각영향인소적계수존재공간비평은성，경제외향도화지리거리고계계수형성료이동북지구위핵심，불단향서남방향확산적권층；상반적시，여유자원대입경여유적작용정도형성료유서남향동북지구축점체감적격국。연구야발현，린근지구적입경유객수량대본지구구유정향영향，경외유객종목적지향주변지구확산，성구지간존재공간일출효응。
Although rich studies of inbound tourism have been done both in China and abroad, few studies concerned proximity and spatial spill-over as the influential factors. Based on the modified tourism gravity model, this paper initiates to apply geographical weighted regression to analyze the impacts of the openness of economy, tourism resources, as well as geographical distance on the inbound tourism of 31 provinces and areas in China. The results are：First, the distribution of inbound tourists shows positive correlation effect and agglomeration in provincial space in China; Second, both the openness of economy and tourism resources have positive impact on inbound tourism while the later has comparatively greater promotion effect, and the increase of geographical distance has negative effect on inbound tourism. Third, spatially, the coefficients of each factor appear instable, and the spatial distribution of the estimate coefficient of the economic openness and geographical distance in provincial space shows a progressive decrease from northeast, the core, to the southwest; Fourth, the estimated coefficient of tourism resources shows a gradual decrease from southwest areas, the core, to the northeast areas; Fifth, inbound tourists of nearby regions have positive influence on the development of local inbound tourists, while overseas tourists have a diffusing effect spreading from the destination to surrounding provincial regions.