CAJ | 학술논문

开放经济条件下一国财政政策运用如何影响该国贸易平衡，这是一个实证问题。本文采用PVAR模型检验了中国财政支出对贸易平衡的动态冲击效应。研究结果表明：（1）从总体上看，在中国特定机制条件下，财政支出对贸易平衡不会产生太大影响；（2）从分区域的角度看，财政支出对贸易平衡的冲击效应存在着显著的区域异质性，各地区财政支出对贸易平衡的冲击强度、收敛路径、累积效应和关联机制等存在着明显差异；（3）经济发展水平对一国财政政策与贸易政策联动性机制的形成具有重要影响。笔者据此提出中国财政政策与贸易政策协调的政策建议。
개방경제조건하일국재정정책운용여하영향해국무역평형，저시일개실증문제。본문채용PVAR모형검험료중국재정지출대무역평형적동태충격효응。연구결과표명：（1）종총체상간，재중국특정궤제조건하，재정지출대무역평형불회산생태대영향；（2）종분구역적각도간，재정지출대무역평형적충격효응존재착현저적구역이질성，각지구재정지출대무역평형적충격강도、수렴로경、루적효응화관련궤제등존재착명현차이；（3）경제발전수평대일국재정정책여무역정책련동성궤제적형성구유중요영향。필자거차제출중국재정정책여무역정책협조적정책건의。
Under the condition of an open economy, it is indeed an empirical issue to test the impacts of a country＇s fiscal policy application on its trade balance. This paper conducts empirical research by PVAR model to test the dynamic shock impacts of China＇s fiscal expenditure on trade balance. It shows that as a whole, China＇s fiscal expenditure exerts rare effects on trade balance. The shock impacts have significant regional heterogeneity in terms of impulse strength, convergence path, cumulative effects, and associated mechanism. We also find that economic development has an important impact on the linkage between fiscal policy and trade policy. Based on this, we put forwards to the suggestions for fiscal and trade policy coordination.