CAJ | 학술논문

通过构建包含区域相关的房价共同因子模型,采集1999—2010年中国35个大中城市房地产市场发展的面板数据,利用CCEP方法测度中国城市住房市场泡沫。结果表明：各区域房价之间存在显著的相关性,这种区域相关性会影响住房市场泡沫存在性的判断。未考虑区域相关的模型检验显示,中国城市住房市场不存在泡沫,但这个结论具有统计上的估计偏差;考虑区域相关的模型检验显示,中国城市住房市场存在泡沫,且住房价格的短期自我动态调整能力降低,对冲击的调整速度大幅下降,泡沫具有自我膨胀的趋势。
통과구건포함구역상관적방개공동인자모형,채집1999—2010년중국35개대중성시방지산시장발전적면판수거,이용CCEP방법측도중국성시주방시장포말。결과표명：각구역방개지간존재현저적상관성,저충구역상관성회영향주방시장포말존재성적판단。미고필구역상관적모형검험현시,중국성시주방시장불존재포말,단저개결론구유통계상적고계편차;고필구역상관적모형검험현시,중국성시주방시장존재포말,차주방개격적단기자아동태조정능력강저,대충격적조정속도대폭하강,포말구유자아팽창적추세。
By building a common factor model, collecting 35 large and medium cities in 1999 -2010 panel data of the real estate market, and using the CCEP method, the urban housing market bubble is meas- ured. The results show that： there is significant correlation between the regional house prices, and the corre- lation will influence the judgment of the existence of housing bubble. Traditional model shows that there is no bubble in China housing market, but the conclusion has a estimation deviation. Considering regional rel- evant model shows that China＇s housing market has a bubble, housing price short - term dynamic adjustment ability is reduced, and the bubble has self- expansion trends.