财贸研究
財貿研究
재무연구
Finance and Trade Research
2014年
1期
30~37
,共null页
经济周期波动 产业结构 偏向型技术进步 中性技术进步
經濟週期波動 產業結構 偏嚮型技術進步 中性技術進步
경제주기파동 산업결구 편향형기술진보 중성기술진보
business cycle fluctuation;industrial structure;biased technical change;neutral technical change
在测度要素偏向型技术进步的基础上,对全国及三次产业的产出增长率进行要素分解,进而分析产业结构变动对经济周期波动的影响。结果表明：20世纪90年代以来,全国和三次产业的要素贡献率的波动趋于缓和,这说明在中国经济发展模式趋于稳定的同时,各要素服务经济发展的方式也趋于稳定;另外,随着经济中第三产业比重的提高,第三产业的各要素波动对全国经济周期波动的影响日益增强,因此第三产业将会是解决收入分配不均及促进技术进步等诸多全国性经济问题的重要着手点。
在測度要素偏嚮型技術進步的基礎上,對全國及三次產業的產齣增長率進行要素分解,進而分析產業結構變動對經濟週期波動的影響。結果錶明：20世紀90年代以來,全國和三次產業的要素貢獻率的波動趨于緩和,這說明在中國經濟髮展模式趨于穩定的同時,各要素服務經濟髮展的方式也趨于穩定;另外,隨著經濟中第三產業比重的提高,第三產業的各要素波動對全國經濟週期波動的影響日益增彊,因此第三產業將會是解決收入分配不均及促進技術進步等諸多全國性經濟問題的重要著手點。
재측도요소편향형기술진보적기출상,대전국급삼차산업적산출증장솔진행요소분해,진이분석산업결구변동대경제주기파동적영향。결과표명：20세기90년대이래,전국화삼차산업적요소공헌솔적파동추우완화,저설명재중국경제발전모식추우은정적동시,각요소복무경제발전적방식야추우은정;령외,수착경제중제삼산업비중적제고,제삼산업적각요소파동대전국경제주기파동적영향일익증강,인차제삼산업장회시해결수입분배불균급촉진기술진보등제다전국성경제문제적중요착수점。
Based on measurements of factor biased technical change,this paper decomposes the whole country and the three industries’ output grow th,and analyzes the influence of the industrial structure on business cycle fluctuation. The results show that： since the 1990s,the volatilities of the contribution rate of factors of the w hole country and the three industries have appeared to be subsiding,w hich indicates that the w ay factors serve the economy is more stable along w ith economic developing model in China tending to be more stable. The volatilities of the factors of the tertiary industry show increasing effect on business cycle fluctuation along w ith the increasing proportion of the tertiary industry in the economy. Therefore,the tertiary industry w ill be a key point of solving nationw ide economic problems such as income distribution and technical progress.
