CAJ | 학술논문

在界定业绩预告形式上及实质上可靠性的基础上,实证研究披露政策对业绩预告可靠性选择的影响。结果发现,强制性披露政策下业绩预告形式上的可靠性显著高于自愿性披露政策下的情形,但其实质上的可靠性并不高于自愿性披露政策下的情形。结合消息性质的进一步检验发现：不同性质消息下的强制性披露政策的业绩预告形式上的可靠性均显著高于自愿性披露政策下的情形;对于坏消息的业绩预告,其实质上的可靠性显著低于自愿性披露下的情形。
재계정업적예고형식상급실질상가고성적기출상,실증연구피로정책대업적예고가고성선택적영향。결과발현,강제성피로정책하업적예고형식상적가고성현저고우자원성피로정책하적정형,단기실질상적가고성병불고우자원성피로정책하적정형。결합소식성질적진일보검험발현：불동성질소식하적강제성피로정책적업적예고형식상적가고성균현저고우자원성피로정책하적정형;대우배소식적업적예고,기실질상적가고성현저저우자원성피로하적정형。
Based on the definition of seeming reliability and essential reliability of earnings forecast, this paper empirically studies the impact of the disclosure policy on the choice of forecast reliability. The study show s that the seeming reliability is higher under the mandatory policy than under the voluntary policy,but the essential reliability under the mandatory policy is not higher than under the voluntary policy. Taking the character of new s into account,the paper find that the seeming reliability is higher under the mandatory policy than under the voluntary policy for different new s,but the essential reliability is significantly low er under the mandatory policy than under the voluntary policy for bad new s forecast.