CAJ | 학술논문

文章从系统角度,构建地区就业格局演变模型,解构就业数据,研究中部地区就业格局演进轨迹。结果表明：中部就业自然增长率演进方面,23年前后的人口自然增长率能解释轨迹演进的86%,历程为：1981-1984年为“V”形,1987-1996年为复杂波动,1996-2011年为“长U”形,2012-2015年为低幅波动,2016-2020年由4.47升至5.66,并在2021-2030年下降并维持在4.00以上,中部用工荒在2016年进入潜伏,2024年左右爆发。中部内部就业格局演进方面,直至2011年,除1983年与1985年外均为拥塞,2012-2015年缓解明显,2016-2021年却逆转加重,2021-2030年不断缓解但无法解除,因而中部内部很长时间内仍存在就业难。中部内外就业格局演进方面,1979-2003年中部吸纳西部劳动力的同时并向东部、东北转移劳动力,2003-2011年中部、东部、东北则为竞争,2003年中部出现“恐慌式用工荒”,至2011年“恐慌”仍在扩散。
문장종계통각도,구건지구취업격국연변모형,해구취업수거,연구중부지구취업격국연진궤적。결과표명：중부취업자연증장솔연진방면,23년전후적인구자연증장솔능해석궤적연진적86%,역정위：1981-1984년위“V”형,1987-1996년위복잡파동,1996-2011년위“장U”형,2012-2015년위저폭파동,2016-2020년유4.47승지5.66,병재2021-2030년하강병유지재4.00이상,중부용공황재2016년진입잠복,2024년좌우폭발。중부내부취업격국연진방면,직지2011년,제1983년여1985년외균위옹새,2012-2015년완해명현,2016-2021년각역전가중,2021-2030년불단완해단무법해제,인이중부내부흔장시간내잉존재취업난。중부내외취업격국연진방면,1979-2003년중부흡납서부노동력적동시병향동부、동북전이노동력,2003-2011년중부、동부、동북칙위경쟁,2003년중부출현“공황식용공황”,지2011년“공황”잉재확산。
From the system perspective, the paper builds an evolution model of regional employment patterns to deconstruct employment data and study the evolution of employment patterns in the central region of China. The results show that：In the evolution of the natural employment growth rate,the natural population growth rate before and after 23 years can explain 86%of the evolution track. The evolution track could be described as：“V”shape in 1981-1984, complicated fluctuations in 1987-1996,“long U”shape in 1996-2011, low-amplitude fluctuations in 2012-2015, and will rise to 5.66 from 4.47 in 2016-2020,then will fall and maintain over 4.00 in 2021-2030. The labor shortage in the central region will enter the incuba-tion period in 2016 and outbreak around 2024;In the evolution of the internal employment pattern,until 2011,the central re-gion was always in a state of congestion except for 1983 and 1985, there is a significant relief in 2012-2015, however there will be a reversed increase in 2016-2021,then it will continue to mitigate,but cannot be lifted,therefore,employment diffi-culties still exist inside the central region for a long time;In the evolution of the internal and external employment pattern,the central region always attracted laborers from the western region, and meanwhile it also transported laborers to the eastern and northern regions in 1979-2003, there was a competition among the middle, eastern and northern regions in 2003-2011, there was a“panic-style labor shortage”in the middle region after 2003, and the“fear panic”began to spread repeatedly from 2003 to 2011.