CAJ | 학술논문

本文构建动态可计算一般均衡模型来定量研究国际石油价格上涨对我国经济的影响.研究结果表明,国际石油价格上升对我国实际GDP、投资、居民收入和进出口额等主要经济指标均有不利影响;技术进步是抵消国际油价上升的重要工具.最后,本文根据实证结果提出了一些政策建议.
본문구건동태가계산일반균형모형래정량연구국제석유개격상창대아국경제적영향.연구결과표명,국제석유개격상승대아국실제GDP、투자、거민수입화진출구액등주요경제지표균유불리영향;기술진보시저소국제유개상승적중요공구.최후,본문근거실증결과제출료일사정책건의.
A Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） model is constructed to quantitatively evaluate the effect of price shocks in international crude oil market on the Chinese economy. The main results are summarized as follows： international oil price rising has negative impact on tha main economic indicators of China, such as real GDP, investment, residents＇ ineome, imports and exports. And technical progress is key tool to offset international oil price rising. Based on the simulation results, we put forward some poliey proposals.