CAJ | 학술논문

以1975-2012年间国际小麦价格为例，从供给、需求和金融化三个视角分析了国际粮食价格的影响因素。研究发现，人口增长和生物质能源发展是影响小麦价格长期走势的最主要需求因素；金融投机是造成小麦价格短期波动的最主要原因。研究还发现，粮食储备变化也是小麦价格短期内波动的原因之一，而能源价格、美元汇率和人口结构未产生实质性影响。
이1975-2012년간국제소맥개격위례，종공급、수구화금융화삼개시각분석료국제양식개격적영향인소。연구발현，인구증장화생물질능원발전시영향소맥개격장기주세적최주요수구인소；금융투궤시조성소맥개격단기파동적최주요원인。연구환발현，양식저비변화야시소맥개격단기내파동적원인지일，이능원개격、미원회솔화인구결구미산생실질성영향。
Based on the annual data of world wheat price between 1975 and 2012 ,this paper analyzes the determinants of grain price volatility from the perspective of demand ,supply and financial speculation .The basic conclusions are listed as follows：World population growth and the increasing bio -fuel productions have played the most important roles in the long-run trend of wheat price ,and that financial speculation and grain stock have caused the surge of price volatility in the short run while other factors such as energy price ,dollar currency rate and demographic structure only cast relative effects on the global wheat price volatility .