企业经济
企業經濟
기업경제
Enterprise Economy
2014年
9期
103~108
,共null页
碳排放 机理分解 协整分析 误差修正模型 格兰杰检验
碳排放 機理分解 協整分析 誤差脩正模型 格蘭傑檢驗
탄배방 궤리분해 협정분석 오차수정모형 격란걸검험
carbon emissions; decomposition model; co - integration analysis; vector error correction model; Granger test
文章通过建立LMDI模型对我国工业碳排放变化进行机理分析。以此为基础，根据能源消费特征将工业行业分为能源密集型行业和非能源密集型行业，利用协整分析、误差修正模型和格兰杰检验，研究行业异质性对碳排放变化的长短期影响。研究表明：不同类型行业对碳排放的关键影响因子迥异，并且长期关系也表现出不一致性。两类行业与碳排放之间均存在长期均衡的协整关系和短期动态调整机制。通过短期调节，可以自动实现行业发展与碳排放的长期均衡，但调整力度和方向不尽相同。此外，文章为工业的发展提出了具有较强针对性的节能减排、低碳发展的措施。
文章通過建立LMDI模型對我國工業碳排放變化進行機理分析。以此為基礎，根據能源消費特徵將工業行業分為能源密集型行業和非能源密集型行業，利用協整分析、誤差脩正模型和格蘭傑檢驗，研究行業異質性對碳排放變化的長短期影響。研究錶明：不同類型行業對碳排放的關鍵影響因子迥異，併且長期關繫也錶現齣不一緻性。兩類行業與碳排放之間均存在長期均衡的協整關繫和短期動態調整機製。通過短期調節，可以自動實現行業髮展與碳排放的長期均衡，但調整力度和方嚮不儘相同。此外，文章為工業的髮展提齣瞭具有較彊針對性的節能減排、低碳髮展的措施。
문장통과건립LMDI모형대아국공업탄배방변화진행궤리분석。이차위기출，근거능원소비특정장공업행업분위능원밀집형행업화비능원밀집형행업，이용협정분석、오차수정모형화격란걸검험，연구행업이질성대탄배방변화적장단기영향。연구표명：불동류형행업대탄배방적관건영향인자형이，병차장기관계야표현출불일치성。량류행업여탄배방지간균존재장기균형적협정관계화단기동태조정궤제。통과단기조절，가이자동실현행업발전여탄배방적장기균형，단조정력도화방향불진상동。차외，문장위공업적발전제출료구유교강침대성적절능감배、저탄발전적조시。
This article attempts to use the decomposition model to analyze the factors that influence industrial carbon emissions. Then according to energy consumption characteristics, 32 industries are divided into energy- intensive industries and non -ener- gy- intensive industries. By using co- integration analysis, Vector Error Correction Model and Granger test, this paper mainly discusses the long- term and short- term effects of heterogeneity on carbon emissions. Studies show that different types of industries have different critical effects on carbon emissions and the long - term relationships also show inconsisten- cy. Two kinds of industries have a long- run equilibrium co- integration and short- term dynamic adjustment mechanism on carbon emissions. In addition, by short- term dynamic adjustments, we can realize the long- term balance between industry development and carbon emissions. Notably, the extent and direction of adjustment are different. In addition, the results provide pertinent measures for industries to implement energy conservation and formulate low - carbon development.
